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Breaking Suffolk Univ - Channel 7 Poll Results

by: ConsEph

Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 22:20:31 PM EDT

(I just got this email from Tim O'Brien.

We'll be releasing an internal poll this morning showing Baker leading by 7 points.

Little history lesson on Suffolk:

Oct 26, 2009 NJ governor poll- despite other polls showing a dead heat, Suffolk polling showed Corzine at 42% leading comfortably over Christie at 33%, with independent Chris Daggett trailing with 7%.

The result of the race:

Christie: 49%,
Corzine: 45%
Dagget: 6%

So with less than a week out the ballot was 13% off.

- promoted by Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno

Poll Results are in:

Patrick - 46
Baker - 39
Cahill - 10
Stein - 1
Undecided - 4

Appears that the focus of the last two weeks has hurt Baker and placed Patrick back into a strong leading position. Is this it for Baker or can he pull it off in the next 20 days?

ConsEph :: Breaking Suffolk Univ - Channel 7 Poll Results
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The Patrick-Cahill collusion effort is working for now (0.00 / 0)
but voters will have their say on November 2.

"Work is the essence of Man."

"collusion"???????? (0.00 / 0)
If you get back on your meds the delusional psychosis we be under control.

[ Parent ]
We need attack ads on Patrick squandering taxpayer $$$ RIGHT NOW (0.00 / 0)

Any man who afflicts the human race with ideas must be prepared to see them misunderstood. - H. L. Mencken

[ Parent ]
RIGHT NOW (0.00 / 0)
because Charlie Baker has nothing positive to offer.  

[ Parent ]
Patrick has been let off the hook by this Cahill-Treasury scandal (0.00 / 0)
Which is not fair because he has made a MESS of state government for the past four years - we can't let him go unscathed.  

Any man who afflicts the human race with ideas must be prepared to see them misunderstood. - H. L. Mencken

[ Parent ]
Lol (0.00 / 0)
If only we could get a picture of Deval holding a lottery ticket. That would be the definative piece of evidence people would need to connect the dots !
Where the heck are the paparazzi when you need them?

[ Parent ]
Stein at 1 point seems a bit low (0.00 / 0)

"Work is the essence of Man."

I had thought the whole thing would benefit her more than Deval among non-GOP independents (0.00 / 0)

Yr. Obedient Servant, Peter Porcupine, Republican

[ Parent ]
Registered voters aren't Likely voters (5.00 / 1)
Registered voters aren't Likely voters

Good Catch (0.00 / 0)
What's up with that?

(R)- Outside 495

[ Parent ]
Exactly (5.00 / 1)
How could a poll measure which registered voter is more motivated to vote? I've seen several recent polls that indicate likely GOP voters at substantially more likely to actually vote than their Democratic counterparts...which is really a sad statement about voters in general.  

Whether those observations hold true locally...we can't know until it's history.  But I wouldn't discount the enthusiasm gap.

Suffering Battered Voter Syndrome since 8/31/1981

[ Parent ]
Something to think About (0.00 / 0)
October 30, 1990 (Globe)
Silber (D) 46%
Weld (R) 37%

October 7, 2002 (Suffolk)
O'Brien + 12% over Romney

(R)- Outside 495

" CHARLIE BAKER HAS BIG PROBLEMS" - Andy Hiller Channel 7 (2.00 / 2)
"Less Trustworthy"
"Bad Temperament"

According to the Suffolk University/Channel 7 Pol that what people in the pol think of Charlie Baker.

Time to brush up your Resume Charlie. How 'bout going back to ripping off physicians...!

Andy Hiller should be ashamed of himself (0.00 / 0)
Hiller passes himself off as a serious analyst, but he's nothing more than a shill for Democrats - in his blatantly anti-Baker rant, he neglected to mention a story that is on the front page of the Globe - that documentation proves there was collusion between the Cahill political campaign and the Massachusetts Treasury. Hiller should be fired for incompetence.  

Any man who afflicts the human race with ideas must be prepared to see them misunderstood. - H. L. Mencken

[ Parent ]
Nana ! Nana ! Nana ! Waw ! Waw ! Waw! (0.00 / 0)
Stop your whining.
When Hiller went after the Dems you thought he was the most intelligent analyst in town.
The Truth Hurts !
Charlie Baker Sucks as a candidate.
Should go back  . . . and he will ... to counting beans.

Christy Mihos would have been a more aggressive and better candidate.  

[ Parent ]
Hey Old Spice (0.00 / 0)
why don't you crawl back under that blue rock. There's no way Christie would have been a more aggressive and better candidate. He would have been brushed aside as he was in 200 when he wasn't damaging Kerry Healey.

"Work is the essence of Man."

[ Parent ]
I like Christie Mihos, he has my vote any day of the week! (0.00 / 0)

Molon Labe

[ Parent ]
Did they....? (0.00 / 0)
Poll the tresurer's race?

(runs and hides....)

Grease Fire

This is discouraging (5.00 / 1)
The numbers in this race are starting to look very similar in each poll.  The longer we go without seeing a shift the worse it is.  We're running out of time.

You can certainly close 7% in 19 days.  The problem is that the numbers are not closing.  There is no momentum.  No positive vector quantity.  I expect the overall enthusiasm gap to close a few points for all Republicans.  However, that may not be enough.

There needs to be a dynamic variable introduced into this race.  Perhaps the Baker campaign was hoping the Loscocco withdrawal would be that variable, but so far it has not been enough.

Loscocco should not have dropped out on a Friday.  Were they trying to bury the story?  I don't get it.

"Never Head of Michael Graham." - Gabriel Gomez.

Exatly!!!! (0.00 / 0)
Glad you said it.  

Movement is what polls track better than any other factor.  

[ Parent ]
Apples to Apples (0.00 / 0)
Yes.  That's why I try to include the polling history for each firm when I post about new polls.  Different firms use different metrics.  However, if each firm uses consistent metrics the change can be measured effectively.

"Never Head of Michael Graham." - Gabriel Gomez.

[ Parent ]
Baker has done a great job... (0.00 / 0)
...running against Cahill, of course the problem is that Baker needs to be running against Patrick.  

Polling has shown conventional wisdom wrong--Cahill voters do not automatically have Baker as a 2nd choice--and the Baker campaign's apparent mistake is thinking that is true.  And the way Baker is now in a bare knuckle brawl with Cahill, I can't image the Cahill voter will eagerly embrace Baker...and Baker is so deep into this battle with Cahill, not sure how he fixes this in less than 3 weeks.

[ Parent ]
Have to Agree (5.00 / 1)
Simple has hit on a major issue.  How much time and resources were used to tackle Cahill while Patrick was left to push his message. Polls show Patrick's approach is working with the voters.

There is 19 days for Baker and team to see if they can reverse the trend.  Not impossible, but in the current environment which is focused on who did what to whom and when, not easy either.

[ Parent ]
It is likely voters. (5.00 / 3)
FYI.  Suffolk poll is of LIKELY voters.  I just confirmed it with Paleologos. 

I hope this post is sterile enought for Ferro. Lol.  

Yeah but old man Ferro is never happy (0.00 / 0)

Molon Labe

[ Parent ]
Watching paint dry (0.00 / 0)
Charlie is about as inspiring as Mike Dukakis. He comes across as a smarmy dullard. If someone doesn't give him a personality injection its 4 more years of Mini-me. Once again the country will change and this state will still be backing McGovern - George that is.

Exactly ! (0.00 / 0)
When I met Baker he did remind me of a tall Dukakis.
They both need a personality transplant.

Dukakis was terrible. Do we need a tall clone or clown... of the Duke.

God, Save The Commonwealth of Massachusetts.

[ Parent ]
Why isn't Baker saturating TV, Radio, and the Internet with ads? (0.00 / 0)
Shouldn't he be spending everything he takes in right now?

He did. (0.00 / 0)
Did you miss all the Cahill ads?  

No spam. Mobile friendly.
Follow @AltercateMA

[ Parent ]
The Ads Worked Too (0.00 / 0)
All of those Baker ads have moved him firmly ahead of Cahill.

[ Parent ]
Cahill ambassadorship ? (0.00 / 0)
I always thought Cahill's strategy was to take enough votes away from Baker to get Patrick elected. I'm still not sure it's worked, but if it does when will he get his ambassadorship from the Obama Administration. Will they wait a year or just do it on a Friday afternoon in the summer.

RE: O'Brien Suffolk Comment. (0.00 / 0)
"We've gone from 39 points down, to now (internal polls show) we're under ten," O'Brien said.

Boston Herald, Friday, October 20th, 2006

So with 17 days out, the only campaign O'Brien was focused on full time, their internal was off by at least 12%.

Tim O'Brien had an unlimited budget for Kerry Healey and didn't even break 35%. He is the LAST person to be criticizing anyone.


Actual Results 2006
  Patrick     1,230,065   56%
  Healey        779,807   35%
  Mihos         154,012    7%
  Ross            43,032    2%

October 12, 2006 Suffolk Poll
 Deval Patrick: 46 percent
 Kerry Healey: 33 percent
 Christy Mihos: 7 percent
 Grace Ross: 1 percent
 Undecided: 12 percent

Vincent----please help (5.00 / 2)
   Get the message out to the Baker Team to put Charlie in front of a camera as he can sell the message like none other.  He's articulate, poised, TV ready and People LIKE Charlie---PLUS he's right on the issues.  

[ Parent ]
I wish they would listen. (5.00 / 1)
3 weeks were wasted on Cahill in the media, while Deval was running touchy feely education ads on Dancing with the Stars getting the late deciding swing voters.

Charlie needs to come up with a funny ad attacking Deval. This way, women wont be turned off by the negativity and yet the contrast will be made. It has to be smart and funny because saturation of message wont work with 3 weeks left and the white noise dominating.... you ahve to stand out and create buzz.

[ Parent ]
2010 Governor's Race summary. (0.00 / 0)
2010 Governor's Race summary.

Corleone = Baker  
Tattaglia = Cahill  
Barzini = Patrick

Baker can win when he realizes and focuses on the fact that his opponent is Patrick.  

[ Parent ]
Baker Will Be About As Successful As . . . (0.00 / 0)

Three thumbs down on both.

[ Parent ]
I had lengthy convos (0.00 / 0)
with baker folks about this last week.

Full Disclosure

[ Parent ]
Terrible Video. Who Is His Media Advisor (0.00 / 0)
Who is Charlie Baker looking at?
That mysterious third person?
Baker should have been looking right into the camera and speak directly to the voters. And why have who ever that woman standing there as an appendage without acknowleging that she may or may not be his wife. It is distracting to his message as is his inability to look right into the camera.
Very bad video production values. That person should be fired immediately.

[ Parent ]
Agreed - Baker needs to look strait ahead. (0.00 / 0)
It's like hellooooo Baker, stop talking to my right shoulder.  I'm the one that's going to cast the vote not my shoulder.  deeeeer

Molon Labe

[ Parent ]

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