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POS: Baker up 7

by: Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno

Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 09:30:15 AM EDT


There will be a Public Opinion Strategies poll released by the baker campaign later today that has Baker up by 7 amongst likely voters.  RMG has learned the poll has a sample size of over 500 voters.

Complete POS Memo after the jump

Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno :: POS: Baker up 7
MEMORANDUM

TO:                  BAKER FOR GOVERNOR CAMPAIGN

FROM:            NEIL NEWHOUSE PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

SUBJECT:      RECENT BAKER POLL DATA

DATE:            OCTOBER 14, 2010

As you know, our firm recently completed a statewide survey in Massachusetts of 800 likely general election voters for the Baker campaign.  The poll was conducted October 11-13 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.46% in 95 out of 100 cases.

Key Findings

1.      Charlie Baker has taken a significant lead in the race.

For the first time in our polling, Charlie Baker has taken a significant lead in the race:

Governor Ballot:

Charlie Baker:  42%

Deval Patrick:  35%

Tim Cahill:       10%

Jill Stein          2%

Undecided      10%

Charlie leads among Independents by more than a two-to-one margin over Patrick (52%-23%), reflecting the trend we saw earlier this year with Scott Brown.

Charlie is now getting 64% of wrong track voters, 72% of voters who disapprove of the job Governor Patrick is doing, and 72% of "new person" voters.  Baker is now the clear alternative for voters who want a change in the Corner Office.

Continuing a trend in this race, Charlie leads by a larger margin among voters most interested in the race - among voters who rate their interest in the upcoming election the highest, rating it 9-10 (62% of our sample) on a 1-10 scale, Charlie leads by a 50%-33%-8% margin.

While we're seeing Democrats across the country close the" energy gap," this is not the case here in Massachusetts.

2.      Governor Patrick image hasn't moved.

The Governor's image hasn't moved in quite some time.  A majority of voters polled still have an unfavorable impression of Deval Patrick (45% favorable/51% unfavorable), and just 40% of voters polled believe that the Governor has done a good enough job to deserve re-election (compared to 55% who say they want him replaced).

Clearly, voters are looking for a change.

3.      Baker's positive image continues to grow.

Charlie Baker remains the only candidate with a positive image in the state:

Charlie Baker              45% favorable - 30% unfavorable      Margin - +15

Deval Patrick              45% favorable - 51% unfavorable      Margin -  -6

Tim Cahill                   28% favorable - 46% unfavorable      Margin -  -18

4.      The tone of the campaign has turned negative.

Voters were asked their reaction to what they had seen, read or heard recently regarding the three candidates.  All three candidates now have a negative "information flow":

Charlie Baker              35% more favorable    42% less favorable      Margin - -7

Deval Patrick              34% more favorable    45% less favorable      Margin - -11

Tim Cahill                   19% more favorable    58% less favorable      Margin - -39

Bottom Line

Charlie Baker's support continues to grow in the state, and he now has a significant lead over Gov. Deval Patrick, with a more positive image and a better information flow.  The latter stages of this campaign reflect what we saw earlier this year with the Scott Brown race; Independent voters are coalescing behind the GOP candidate, putting Charlie Baker in a position to win this race.

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POS: Baker up 7 | 17 comments
Now we're talking!!!!!! (0.00 / 0)


POS? (0.00 / 0)
ROFLMAO!
Me thinks you might want to reconsider tagging the poll as a POS :)

Very funny (0.00 / 0)
...but in all seriousness, POS is Public Opinion Strategies (www.pos.org) Neil Newhouse and Bill McInturff's firm in Alexandria, VA.  Rob Autry has been doing the MassGOP polling since at least 2002.

[ Parent ]
do u agree they are usually very accurate? (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
Hard to say (0.00 / 0)
They have certainly been accurate, but I was recently reminded that in 2006 Timmy O said their internals showed Kerry Healey within single digits.  We all know how that ended.

The media's standard line is that unless the campaign shares ALL of its polling data (methodology, cross-tabs, etc) then it's just meaningless bluster.

If they show us the guts and not just the top line, then it will be easier to evaluate.


[ Parent ]
Well it's interesting (0.00 / 0)
I just hope its spin-free stuff that can stand on its own.

"Work is the essence of Man."

Patrick reax (4.33 / 3)
Patrick team just lashed out at the POS poll.
"Republican Charlie Baker's internal poll has as much credibility as his failed Big Dig finance plan," said Patrick campaign spokesman Alex Goldstein.  "Baker's already shown he is good at inflating numbers - just ask the working families and small businesses who have been suffering under his 150% increase in health care premiums."  

That isn't the reaction of a campaign that thinks it is comfortably sitting on a 7 point lead.  That campaign would be cool and dismissive.  This is the reaction of a campaign whose own internals are much closer to Baker's.


Er isn't that the same financing plan that's still used by the Patrick Administration (0.00 / 0)
to fund infrastructure. You are right. Rubin and company are a bit afraid. Remember the majority of voters do not automatically think Deval should have another four years. He hasn't broken 50 percent in any poll.

"Work is the essence of Man."

[ Parent ]
Uh ... (5.00 / 1)
Like they say; there are statistics and then there are damned statistics. Im not sure which of these this poll represents ....
But ..
:)
They also say that noone wants to be the one to tell the boss something that he doesnt want to hear.
My hunch is the boys over at POS arent ones to break with that tradition.

About POS. (0.00 / 0)
The last state legislative campaign I worked for used POS for its internals, and they seemed to specialize in providing information that we didn't want to hear.  :)

[ Parent ]
So they told you the BAD news often right? (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
Often? (0.00 / 0)
It was all bad news, never good. But the accompanying memo always made the bad news sound so pleasant!

[ Parent ]
Which poll is right? (0.00 / 0)
Suffolk or POS will be taking a victory lap. And one will be laughed at. Should be interesting to see which way this breaks.

Some wierd things going on..... (5.00 / 1)
If you apply the margin of Baker support amongst independents in the POS to the Suffolk poll, here is the result:
Baker (.15*37)+(.85*12)+(.52*51) = 41.2%
Patrick (.77*37)+(.05*12)+(.23*51) = 40.8%

So, the difference in Independent Support is not enough to explain why these polls have OPPOSITE results. Fixing the Independent result, gives you a tie.

Suffolk's sample is
37% D
12% R
51% I

I know that represents the actual voter registration margins in the state, but that's NOT what actual election usually looks like in Massachusetts.
Here's the exits poll from 2004, 2006, 2008 in MA. (SOURCE CNN) All of which were not good results for Massachusetts Republicans.
2004- 39 D, 16 R, I 44
2006- 42 D, 19 R, I 39
2008- 43 D, 17 R, I 40

My guess the actual voters will be 40 D, 20 R, 40 I (Its a good Republican Year)
With Suffolk Breakdown
Baker (.15*40)+(.85*20)+(.48*40)= 42%
Patrick (.77*40)+(.05*20)+(.32*40) = 45%

So that doesn't work on its own either.....

BOTH CORRECTIONS NOW
Baker (.15*40)+(.85*20)+(.52*40) = 44%
Patrick (.77*40)+(.05*20)+(.23*40) = 41%

I DON'T SEE HOW BAKER IS UP 7!!!!

(R)- Outside 495


Nicely done! (0.00 / 0)
What was the POS party affiliation breakdown of voters polled?

[ Parent ]
Wasn't Given (0.00 / 0)
From the memo above
So I tried to work it out...

(R)- Outside 495

[ Parent ]
Another poll coming out tomorrow will show... (5.00 / 1)
....Baker +5.
Stay tuned.

POS: Baker up 7 | 17 comments



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