 Which state will be the most important state in the 2012 election? Every close presidential election has one crucial swing state that ultimately makes the difference and pushes the victor over the top and sometimes it is one that we all least suspect. In 2000 it was Florida for Bush and in other years it has been Iowa, Ohio, or a handful of other bellwethers. 2008 was such a thrashing that no one state made the crucial difference, but 2012 is shaping up to be a potentially close race and it could turn out to be an election decided by one crucial state. My guess as to which it will be? The "Live Free or Die" state on our northern border, New Hampshire.
Republicans need to win back their essential states of North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Indiana, and Ohio without question in order to remain competitive and relevant. This alone however won't win them the election as it would leave them 4 votes shy of the magic number of 270, and hand Obama a 2 vote victory. The question then becomes, "Where will the additional 4 electoral votes will come from?" The remaining 3 states that McCain lost by less than 10% are Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire. While all of these states have been trending away from the GOP, one of these states experienced a dramatic turnaround of fortunes for the GOP in the 2010 midterm elections: New Hampshire.
The New Hampshire GOP under the leadership of John Sununu won an open US Senate seat by over 60% of the vote, won back two Congressional seats despite wide fundraising gaps, and saw a seismic realignment in their State Legislature, going from the minority party in both chambers to winning almost 100 seats in their State House (gaining 74% of all seats) and decimating the ranks of the Democrats in their Senate from 14 to 5 (establishing an almost 80% majority). Thus is the case, that New Hampshire is the state we have to steal and it is possible.
The map here(created at the nifty interactive electoral college website 270toWin) shows a Republican victory in a potential photo finish, 270 electoral vote nailbiter. This very same map would have resulted in a 6 electoral vote loss in 2008, but through the magic of redistricting we essentially "won" a 6 vote state for free, and this becomes a Republican victory model. The possibility to flip more states is possible ie: Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, and devastatingly for the Democrats, Pennsylvania(states ordered by losing margins in 2008) but the tipping point is New Hampshire. As it goes so it goes so goes the nation. The question for GOP Primary voters concerned with electability shouldn't be "Who can beat Obama?", it ought to be, "Who can win New Hampshire?". Stay tuned. |
