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Internal Bielat Campaign Memo claims 56% primary lead

by: Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno

Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 17:59:28 PM EDT


Update:  RMG asked the Bielat campaign to share their full poll data.  The campaign as provided us with that data.  It will be posted tomorrow.

In an internal campaign memo, obtained by Red Mass Group, Sean Bielat's campaign team claims a recent poll shows them with a 56+ point lead over both Elizabeth Childs and David Steinhof in the Republican Primary for the Fourth Congressional District.  The poll, conducted by Precision Polling on July 25, 2012 for the Bielat Campaign is said to show Bielat at 59%+ and Childa and Steinhoff tied at approximately 3.5% with the remainder undecided.  

Q1:"If the Republican primary was held today, which candidate would you support?" Answers given in random order for each caller to avoid skewing the data: "Sean Bielat", "Elizabeth Childs", "David Steinhof", "Undecided".
Results:
• Bielat: 59.96%
• Childs: 3.57%
• Steinhof: 3.40%
• Undecided: 33.06%

The poll was conducted by calling 2010 primary voters, of which 1202 responded.  The results obtained by Red Mass Group do not conform to the standards set by the National Council on Public Polls for disclosure.  

The numbers obtained by Precision Polling are said, by the Bielat Campaign, to mirror the results of their phone banking operation.

The memo also goes on to explain Bielat's apparent edge in fundraising and social media.  

Sean Bielat 7/25/2012 Poll

Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno :: Internal Bielat Campaign Memo claims 56% primary lead
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Good news, then let's have more debates (5.00 / 1)
OK -

If this poll is correct, then Sean, as I expected, has the primary all wrapped up, which is great! There is no way that the other candidates are going to overcome a 50+ point deficit in several weeks unless Sean is found to secretly be a member of Al-Qaeda or Emily's List.

Sean has seemed to be stingy about debates with his opponents (yes, everyone gives the "schedule" excuse). But since he has no chance of losing now, why not debate his opponents a few times? Let's see how he handles being called a horrible person for being against abortion and gay marriage - especially by a woman. I think some sparring with Dr. Childs may be a good thing! She is a lot older and more experienced than he, and it might be valuable to see how he does.

Also, the reason Sean lost in 2010 was that he got clobbered in the northern part of the district, where Dr. Childs and I live. Maybe arguing against one of them would be good for him. With such an enormous lead, he does have room to take chances.


Extending that logic a bit... (0.00 / 0)
...over to the other side, where sophomoric ginger "JoKe-3" is drowning in millions of national dollars, shouldn't he be warming up his debating prowess over and over against the unknowns that he is running against?  Or would that just elevate them and diminish him, in some way?

Anyway, I've been in jail again away so I've missed any debates that have already happened - how did they go, do you know?  (or haven't there been any?)

Hey Rob Eno how come I can't recommend a post that you write and immediately FP?


[ Parent ]
Debates (0.00 / 0)
As far as I know, Bielat has agreed to 3 debates and is looking at a 4th. I think the first is on NECN this Monday.

3 or 4 debates with candidates who have no chance of winning seems sufficient to me and will probably help Sean prepare for debates with Joe Kennedy.

Full Disclosure: My firm is a vendor to Bielat for Congress 2012.

Liberals have sound and original ideas. Unfortunately none of their original ideas are sound and none of their sound ideas are original.


Good (0.00 / 0)
I know this was a bone of contention for a long time. I agree that there is a bar to be cleared for candidates being viable, as well. I think 3 televised debates is enough. However, we should have had at least two televised debates by now.

Let's see how it goes.


[ Parent ]
More than enough debates (0.00 / 0)
Sean Bielat has agreed to 4 formal debates. one has already taken place on the Jeff Katz show. For those that missed it, I post the debate on Vote Core Values: Here is the link.

http://www.votecorevalues.com/...

In addition to the 4 formal debates, all three or at least two of the candidates have already made several appearances together where they were allowed to speak and take questions. While these are not formal debates, they offer attendees the ability to make side-by-side comparisons.  Such appearances included:

       


       Newton RTC
       4th Congressional District Republican caucus
       Norfolk County Candidates' forum
       Easton RTC
       North Attleboro RTC
       Bellingham RTC
       Hopkinton RTC
       Second Amendment Rally

So that's at least 8 other forums in which the candidates appeared together, allowing voters to compare and contrast these candidates and their views.

The charge that Sean has been stingy with debates is ludicrous.  It's what no-name candidates typically say in a desperate attempt to get the media's attention. This polling clearly shows that both Childs and Steinhof are a non-factor in this race. The only way they can become factors if they get exposure. Why should Bielat do that?
He's already consented to 4 formal debates. Considering how poorly these candidates are doing in the polls, it's not stingy. Rather is pretty generous. Let's not forget this is a Congressional Primary. For Pete's sake we'll only get 3 Presidential Debates between Obama and Romney!
 


[ Parent ]
Thanks (0.00 / 0)
for putting up the debate / link.

My goodness could Childs be any more focused on Sean's job?  What the heck does she think she is going to find there?  Bizarre.


[ Parent ]
Conflicted Interests (0.00 / 0)
If Beth Childs removed the paid advertising that has appeared as RMG's top banner for MONTHS, Rob Eno would be calling for her to drop out of the race and unite behind Bielat. Whether this poll "conforms" or not, the randomization and size of the sample, coupled with the crushingly overwhelming lead make this the ONLY avenue for someone who wants to portray themselves as a Republican, and not just as an opportunist.

There are some in some quarters who think she is a shill for theKennedy family. Unfortuantely, by having such blatant conflicted interests, RMG has really discredited itself.


Chip I believe in primaries (5.00 / 1)
Chip,

I believe in primaries, I also can't be bought.  In full disclosure both the Bielat and Childs campaigns have been professional clients of mine.  

I personally like all three candidates.  I do think Childs has a very tough road to hoe with this.  As you know I am mostly focused on state races, and state issues.  If you've noticed there's not much about congressional races at all on the site.

The conforming is not whether or not the poll is good. It has to do with disclosure.  As someone who fights for transparency I mentioned that.  The Bielat campaign has made available that data.  And I published the part that does not have individual call results.

There are many readers of the this website who have pointed to that institute many times.  I contacted the Bielat campaign immediately receiving the anonymous copy of this memo.  

I am now satisfied. I never doubted the data.  The Childs Ad had nothing to do with it.  

Full Disclosure


http://www.redmassgroup.com/pr...


[ Parent ]
Adverstise here for as low as $60 per week.








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