(Barack) Obama's team also succeeded by emphasizing personal, one-on-one contact with voters; there was an 11-point gap when voters were asked if they'd been visited at home by a campaign in Pew's poll taken last week. Even with something as simple as buying airtime for ads, (Mitt) Romney reportedly used an unusual in-house system that made things more expensive than they needed to be. Again: This is precisely the sort of thing that he wasn't supposed to be outmaneuvered on. His ideological heresies were worrisome, but the comfort in nominating him was that his campaign would be smart and efficient enough to fight Obama to a stalemate.
Instead, news is breaking tonight that even though Nate Silver and Drew Linzer and Simon Jackman and various other statistical modelers all had a high degree of confidence in how the election would go by the end, Romney himself was reportedly genuinely shellshocked when he realized he'd lost. (An NYT story on his address to staffers notes that defeat seemed to "genuinely startle him.") According to a senior advisor, "I don't think there was one person who saw this coming."
With all the information they'd gathered from months of polling and voter outreach, no one inside the campaign had an inkling that Obama's model of the election might be right? Even though Romney ended up trailing in the last national poll average before election day too? One Republican operative wondered to Politico whether the campaign's cheery poll spin was a head fake, aimed at boosting GOP morale, or evidence that they just weren't that smart. Now we know.
Yep. "Now we know." It's a pithy epitaph suitable for Team Romney's tombstone.