Treasurer Cahill Abandoning the Democratic Party, to run for Governor as an Independent?

he will do (0.00 / 0)

a LITTLE better than Mihos did. That's IF Patrick is elected in the primaries.

... In any case Baker/Brown can defeat both.

Alex S.
Chairman of the Springfield RCC
Mandate to Lead!!! lol

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by: SpringfieldGOPSec @ Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 22:43:42 PM UTC

I'm Loving It (0.00 / 0)

The great part of this is that we are going to have a front row seat as the gentry and populist factions of the Democratic Party face off.  This is playing out nationally in the Democratic Party as pointed out by Joel Kotkin in this article:  http://www.newgeography.com/co...  

As for me, I'm pulling for the populist faction (Cahill).  It's not even close.

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by: yankeepundit @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 00:20:18 AM UTC

So how about some early speculation ? (0.00 / 0)

I was listening to wttk when I heard this announcement....Braude who broke the story was of the opinion that Cahill will split a big piece of whatever democratic vote is out there....some because they are sick of Patrick and some because Cahill is allegedly somewhat more fiscally conservative (hurts my head to say that) and that will appeal to some.

What's the chances someone will challenge the Gov in the Dem primary?  How much do you think will be left over for the GOP?  Enough to get 34%?  Will Christy still run and possibly make the trifecta a superfecta ?  Think Deval might just step aside and let someone rally the DEM voters?  And the real wild card, what happens when the Gov puts in a call to his buddy in DC and BHO makes a few cameo appearances on Deval's behalf.

Curious....how many think the 60-ish% of the "independent" voters are really democrats who don't like commitment?  How movable is that large swathe "In the Middle"

Follow me on twitter @garyrlake

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by: garyrlake @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 00:21:35 AM UTC

Never forget (0.00 / 0)

That % that are unenrolled...such as myself...bring Republicans into the Big Seat.

"I acknowledge having racist and classist and sexist feelings of white male superiority." -John Howard

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by: ElectricStrawberry @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 01:16:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mihos 2006 (4.00 / 1)

In 2006 Christy ran as an unenrolled.  There was no confusion on his issue positions.  He didn't pull equally from both parties.  Cahill won't pull equally either.

This also presents a nice opportunity for a socially conservative nominee.  In a 3 way race, being a social conservative is a winning position even if only 40-45% agree with the issue position.  The other two will have to split the vote.  Socially conservative positions will also bring in money and volunteers from the base.

It will be very interesting to see the first wave of 3 way polling data.  I'm willing to bet Cahill initially shows up well.  He's probably done his own polling and wouldn't have bolted if he didn't.  I also believe Christy showed up so well heads up against the Governor mostly because of the Gov's high negative and not based on any broad based love for Christy.

Bob Hedlund for Minority Leader.

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by: Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 01:27:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's seen the numbers, we haven't (0.00 / 0)

I agree in that Cahill has figured out that this somehow makes sense for him. Doesn't make any sense at all to me, but hes seen the polling numbers and I havent. That should make Republicans raise their eyebrows and possible get a little worried.

I also completely agree with you on the social conservative comment. In fact, I see Cahil tacking right and taking on those issues because thats where the vacuum is going to be in this race. Fortunately or not, I think our nominee will probably be to the left socially of Cahill. (I'm thinking Mihos or Baker)

While others welcome this event, I am extremely worried by it. The potential for pitfalls and long term damage in our party is brought out even more for this. Be careful Republicans, in the end this could only marginalize us if we're not able to  make something of it.

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by: South Shore Republican @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 15:52:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm sure he's been doing his own polling (0.00 / 0)

And figured he can grab 34%  I have heard from a relative of mine who is a member of Police union that their membership is not thrilled with Patrick and they have been dying for the opportunity to vote him out.  Now that could be just him speaking on his own behalf, but he made it sound common with his co-workers.  If what he says is the prevailing sentiment, and the public unions had someone they saw as a friend to organized labor and was NOT Deval, that may be quite a bump.

Is Brown still a factor or do with think he has other ambitions?  I always thought I'd see him take a shot a gov, but now I think he may have his sights set on Kennedy's seat with recent history.

Follow me on twitter @garyrlake

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by: garyrlake @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 16:06:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oppps (0.00 / 0)

No offense intended.  It has just been in my experience that almost any unenrolled I have ever spoken with says they "Vote for the candidate", but that candidate invariably turns out to be a DEM.  And when I ask if they have ever voted GOP the answer invariably seems to be "Not that I can remember".

I'm glad to hear I was mistaken. Let's hope there are lots more out there like you.

Follow me on twitter @garyrlake

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by: garyrlake @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 01:36:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well... (0.00 / 0)

most of the People I grew up around are unenrolled Republican voters....because they're mostly working-class guys from working class families that had to actually work since they were 14-15y.o. and got to see the bitg fat wasd the government would take from their earnings.

Most of those I hang out with in the city that are "political" are enrolled Republicans.....afterall, they organize meetings better than unenrolled folks do.

.....but I agree....any time I come across an unenrolled Democrat voter.....they will only vote Democrat.  Same as my uber-lib blood brother that talks a good game of "voting for the candidate"......but pulls the Dem lever every time......and makes donations exclusively to Democrats.

Really, I just don't wanna enroll and get blasted with phone calls and more junk mail any more than I already am.

....but hey, I'm moving out of Cambridge and am intrigued about my new town's politics and might just join the local Republicans.  Doubt it, but stranger things have happened.


"I acknowledge having racist and classist and sexist feelings of white male superiority." -John Howard

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by: ElectricStrawberry @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 17:08:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for info (0.00 / 0)

I don't get that many phone calls or money solicitations, but I suspect that will change as races heat up.

Cambridge....haven't outlawed registering as a republican as local ordinance there anyway :) ?

Good luck with the move man.  I'll probably pass you on my way to NH to shop since I do it often.

Follow me on twitter @garyrlake

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by: garyrlake @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 17:18:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here is Tim Cahill's downfall.... (5.00 / 1)

He doesn't have a story.

To run for statewide office (these days) you need a story - you know, born a poor black child on the south side of Chicago type story.  Romney had a story, and Deval has a story, and Christy Mihos has a story, but Tim Cahill - no story!

Here is his bio: http://www.mass.gov/?pageID=tr...

It reads basically - BU grad, high school wrestling coach, Quincy City Councilor, Treasurer.  I say "So what?"  I don't walk away from his bio feeling any strong desire to make him king.  Is there a public outcry for Tim Cahill to move up in the world based on his outstanding work?  I haven't read or heard any.  He was elected and he did his job.  Lots of people do their job, but to run for Governor you need to make people think you did something that nobody else can do.  Tim Cahill doesn't give me any of those vibes.  He is just an ordinary Joe.

Competent? Yes.
Educated? Yes.
Democrat at heart? Hell Yes.
Same old song and dance? yes.

Tim Cahill is brand X in a market full of designer labels.

Sincerely,
Customercentricity and Resource Allocations Coordinator
Chief Aggravation Officer
Redmassgroup.com

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by: Vote3rdpartynow @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 02:50:16 AM UTC

I've heard similar comments (0.00 / 0)

Several commentators have made similar statements.  Braude even referred to him as having a "thin" resume.  There is a fair bit of concern over at BMG over him being able to siphon off voters from Patrick.  That has to be a good thing, and would like to see a little more concern (a.k.a. minor panic) on all fronts.

And one poster on BMG offered this little nugget that again assures me I'm in the right place here.

If you don't believe in using government to solve problems, why be a democrat?

I told you....it's scary over there. I will concede I often use government and problem in the same sentence though....they are usually separated by the word IS.

I still wonder how much the tide will change when the anointed one will come swooping in once or twice to come to the rescue of his friend, with media in tow, fans swooning, traffic backed up for days.  I'm getting ill just thinking about it.

Follow me on twitter @garyrlake

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by: garyrlake @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 03:16:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're presuming that Obama sweeping in... (0.00 / 0)

...in September and October of 2010 will be a net positive for Deval/whomever the Democratic Nominee will be (*cough* Patrick Murray cough).

I'm not so sure.  It appears that the economy will not start to turn around until at least the spring of 2010.  Even then, unemployment is a lagging indicator, and may not re-bound until 2011.  We could still have 8-10% unemployment (14-18% real unemployment) come November's election.

People aren't going to still be "blaming Bush" two years into Obamaland.


"(He) is a Meathead"

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by: Paul R. Ferro @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 04:37:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

True enough (0.00 / 0)

But I never underestimate the political might of the lemming mentality in this state.  I meet way too many of them.

But this is one I'd be thrilled to wrong about.

Follow me on twitter @garyrlake

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by: garyrlake @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 13:44:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No resume eh? (0.00 / 0)

Cahill has no story, eh?  Let's take that sequence for Cahill and make some slight substitutions.

Cahill: BU grad, high school wrestling coach, Quincy City Councilor, Treasurer

Candidate X: U Idaho grad, hockey mom, small town mayor, Gov of Alaska.

Yep, there is absolutely, positively no way the media (including late night talk shows) or anyone else would ever find a resume like Cahill or Candidate X of interest.  Too much like your average Joe or Jane.    

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by: yankeepundit @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 10:35:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting (5.00 / 1)

The real test of the media is if they treat Tim Cahill with the same overt hostility they treated Candidate X.  So far, they haven't.

Bob Hedlund for Minority Leader.

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by: Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 10:53:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I didn't say 'no resume', I said 'no story'...big difference... (0.00 / 0)

Sarah Palin's resume is as thin as Barack Obama's, but they both have a story to tell.  For Barack it is the 'born a poor black child in south Chicago'.  For Sarah Palin it is the 'small town Alaska girl turned beauty queen turned politician.  She takes on the big boys, hunts moose, carries a gun and drives her kids to soccer'.  Now that is a story.

Tim Cahill is an average guy with no story.  What is Cahill's story - born into middle class family, wife and four kids, went to good school, became Treasurer?  That is not a story worth writing.

Think of it this way - If Tim Cahill's story became a movie would you go and see it?  I wouldn't.  Would they make a movie about Obama or Sarah Palin, or Mitt Romney?  Sure they would and the story could be exciting with all the twists and turns and power struggles.  Tim Cahill - no struggles, no twists and turns, no interest, no story, therefore - no Governor.  

Sincerely,
Customercentricity and Resource Allocations Coordinator
Chief Aggravation Officer
Redmassgroup.com

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by: Vote3rdpartynow @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 16:34:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's (0.00 / 0)

Cahill's story.....

HE'S ...NOT...CADDY DEVAL!!!!!!  

"From MY cold dead hands"

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by: Knightbrigade @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 22:47:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A different strategy or expect the same results (0.00 / 0)

Hasn't anyone noticed that Democrat stock has drastically declined in this state since they didn't have a Republican Gov to blame. Most people think if we just have a Republican Gov to balance the super majority we will see some changes.History shows they will be disappointed each time.And when the Republican Gov can't do the impossible its back into the arms of the Democrats.Let them keep the office and chip away at the House & Senate. Think long term.  Having a Republican Gov takes the focus off how bad the Democrats are ruining this state. The press loves to dived so let them divide a liberal tax and spend Gov. with the liberal tax and spend House and senate. If you really want this state to change help a local Republican running for Rep. or the Senate in 2010.

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by: RFlynn @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 11:33:55 AM UTC

Great Point (0.00 / 0)

Cahill's entry would definitely help any Republican House or Senate challenger.  It shows the electorate how left wing the Democratic establishment in Massachusetts is.  All Democratic incumbent will be under tremendous pressure to back and identify with Deval.

BTW: This is also an opportunity for the state GOP to reposition the Mass Dems.  The Mass Dems are considerably to the left of the national Democrats.  Case in point: The Mass Dem platform backs single payer healthcare.  Most people, including Obama, claim to be against single payer.  Ditto on charter schools.  How about a press release on that?  

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by: yankeepundit @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 12:03:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Press Release? (0.00 / 0)

Press release on that?  Perhaps.  I'm probably hiking up to Boston for a meeting at MassGOP HQ with Communications Director Tarah Donoghue this afternoon ahead of a Public Relations conference call this evening.  

The State Committee was recently sent an info dump from the RNC concerning health care.  I forwarded that to my district committee members & area activists.

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by: BNCordeiro @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 12:48:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tell Tarah Donoghue.... (0.00 / 0)

that I am willing to help the state GOP manage the brand strategy.  For a sizable income no doubt......

Sincerely,
Customercentricity and Resource Allocations Coordinator
Chief Aggravation Officer
Redmassgroup.com

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by: Vote3rdpartynow @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 16:38:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry (0.00 / 0)

I think that we're paying about all the people we're going to for the time being (and unfortunately NO, that doesn't include me!)  :)

Tarah & I had a good meeting earlier this afternoon and PR Committee conference call earlier tonight.

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by: BNCordeiro @ Wed Jul 08, 2009 at 01:07:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

MassGOP Comments (0.00 / 0)

Here are some remarks by our MassGOP Communications Director as quoted in today's edition of the Boston Globe.

Tarah Donoghue, spokeswoman for the Massachusetts Republican Party, said that by any other name Cahill is still a Democrat.

"The letter next to his name doesn't make a difference,'' she said. "It's the same broken promises and disappointing leadership . . . Nothing will change.''

Seeing as how Cahill is being billed as a fiscal conservative, I can see the speculation as to if he will hurt an eventual GOP candidate.  That said, I'm also a firm believer that the average voter will select the genuine article over the lite version, any day of the week & not just Election Day.  Cahill may try to cloak himself as the conservative choice to Deval Patrick but in the privacy of the voting booth the average Massachusetts voter will do in 2010 what they did for 16 years and that is cast a ballot for a real fiscal conserative: our Republican candidate for governor

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by: BNCordeiro @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 12:53:11 PM UTC

Lib Dems begin attacks on Cahill (0.00 / 0)

Jack Spillane of the Standard-Times here in the SouthCoast write a lengthy blog post about how independent Governor Tim Cahill would kill the SouthCoast Commuter Rail to New Bedford & Fall River.  

Of course, Jack tries to equate Cahill with Romney on this charge but really this tend to read, to me, as a Deval Patrick protection piece.  I like Jack & he's always been fair to me, personally, but he does come from a liberal Democrat perspective and hey, since he admits that I do respect it.  

However, even more so than SouthCoast covering for Patrick this piece is really much more of a: time to get federal stimulus spending NOW so that we can lay down some rail and drive some spikes before Cahill prevents us from putting in the final, golden, one in 2011.

And so, it begins...

Cahill will now travel around the state and say he is not going to waste $1.5 billion on a commuter rail plan for a part of the state most residents never visit. There are more Massachusetts votes outside Fall River and New Bedford than in them. Cahill will easily position himself as more moderate on spending than Patrick.

It's not over yet and The Boston Globe, if it survives, may help Patrick before it's over. But with commuter rail not slated to be completed until 2016, and none of its construction slated to start before 2012, rail is in real danger again. It might be time for  Scott Lang, Barney Frank and John Kerry to figure out a way to obtain federal stimulus money to start construction of the southern portion of the track now.

That would at least leave it as a half-finished project when a Gov. Cahill took office.

But if construction doesn't start soon, there's a chance now that time could run out again.    

http://blogs.southcoasttoday.c...

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by: BNCordeiro @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 13:18:31 PM UTC

South Coast Rail (0.00 / 0)

I see this quite differently.  For me the candidate's stand on the South Coast Rail extension is a litmus test for fiscal responsibility.  There is no way that this project has a positive economic payback.  

There are already mass transit options from the South Coast to Boston.  Peter Pan runs two commuter buses to Boston from Fall River (none from New Bedford).  If there was more demand for transit, the free market would provide it by adding more buses.

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by: yankeepundit @ Wed Jul 08, 2009 at 18:03:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Open Treasurer seat (0.00 / 0)

I know it wouldn't matter if Cahill chose to primary Deval Patrick...but this does mean that the Treasurer is an open seat in 2010.

Let's hope for a full slate of GOP statewide candidates!

Marc

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by: msc22777 @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 14:08:59 PM UTC

Yes Yes (0.00 / 0)

I like the way you think !

Follow me on twitter @garyrlake

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by: garyrlake @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 14:13:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MassGOP Candidates Committee (0.00 / 0)

Here's hoping that the MassGOP Candidates Committee, chaired by State Committeeman David Rose of Fall River, will be flooded with potential Republican candidates both for the treasuerer's seat as well as others up & down the ballot.

Potential candidates can certainly contact Executive Director Nick Connors via www.MassGOP.com or David Rose.

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by: BNCordeiro @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 14:18:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nick Connors (2.00 / 1)

Executive Director Nick Connors can be reached at Nick@MassGOP.com.

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by: BNCordeiro @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 14:19:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CAVEAT EMPTOR (5.00 / 1)

I know all Republicans are excited about this, but I'm just not buying that this is a good thing for the party, and heres why:

-Cahill wouldn't have done this unless he saw polling favorable to the idea
-To that end it means people potentially look at two Democrats as being more viable than a Republican candidate

So when we come to the campaign, perhaps we'll be the non-credible third party candidate not even being part of the debate... think Grace Ross 2006. Thats IF we play this one wrong. This will be much trickier than people expect.

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by: South Shore Republican @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 16:04:22 PM UTC

There is a risk (0.00 / 0)

I agree with you that there is the potential for a big risk to the Republican candidates.  Cahill can sell himself to conservative Democrats or fiscally conservative unenrolled voters as a viable option...without having to go all the way over to the GOP.

In a two person race between Deval and GOP candidate, those same people would have to vote the fiscally conservative GOP candidate, or stay home.

Marc

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by: msc22777 @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 16:35:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bad News (0.00 / 0)

Any way you look at this it is bad news and a major setback to the GOP.   There are two groups of voters this election - pro deval moonbats and anti deval voters.

The pro deval moonbats are not a majority and given the horrid job that Patrick has done over the past few years there is no way that they get over 50% and win a head on head race.

However in a 3 way race he only needs a third plus one to win the race assuming that all three candidates are of equal strength. In other words almost 65% of voters could vote against Patrick but he could still end up winning a 2nd term!

That said - if Baker can hold the GOP base vote which is around 35% he could win as well.  But the risk is that if Cahill turns out to be a dud and only pulls 10% or less of the vote then those votes voting for Cahill will be votes that baker needs to defeat Patrick.  It is a steeper hill to climb.

Of course the worst case is that Baker does not run and Mihos is the GOP standard bearer.  The guy is a joke and everyone knows it.  In that case you will probably see a mass defection of GOP voters to Cahill. This will happen because Mihos is a lightweight and once he opens his mouth and the voters get a good look at him they will come to the same conclusion that they did in 2006 - that he is a flake and is not to be entrusted with the Governers office. Maybe Auditor, Sec of State or Treasurer but he is not serious enough to be trusted with the governorship.

In the end Cahill will probably not win but the GOP will look terrible because there is no doubt that Mihos will come in a distant 3rd.

So bottom line - no matter how you look at it - winning back the Govs office in 2010 is a much more difficult task with Cahill in the race as an independent.

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by: red&blue @ Wed Jul 08, 2009 at 02:14:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]