 Tomorrow is the 2009 election. Nationally we have important races for Governor in Virginia and New Jersey, Congress in upstate New York, and various mayors including New York. We also have the municipal elections for each city here in Massachusetts. For the Massachusetts local races go here: http://www.redmassgroup.com/di...
Virginia: In 2008, President Obama won the State of Virgina by a Margin of 52.63% to 46.33%. On year later Virginia appears ready to turn Republican once again. Bob McDonnell (R) has a double digit lead of Creigh Deeds (D) in every available poll. The GOP appears ready to win the corner office for the first time since Jim Gilmore won in 1997. In addition, the GOP appears ready to sweep through the statewide offices and pull heavy majorities among independents in all races.
Prediction: McDonnell (R) 57% Deeds (D) 43%
New Jersey: In 2008, President Obama won the State of New Jersey by a Margin of 57.14% to 41.61%. On year later Virginia appears too close to call. Gov. Corzine has very high negatives in every poll and has shown an inability to break the 43% threshold. On the other hand, New Jersey is a deep shade of blue and has not elected a Republican Governor since 1997. Independent Chris Daggett is just one of the 12 candidates on the ballot and has polled anywhere from 7% to 20% over the past 2 weeks. These candidates will likely pull anti-Corzine votes making a Christie (R) victory much more difficult. If they pull under 10% I think Christie will win, over 10% and the Dem base vote will be too high and Corzine wins.
Prediction: Christie (R) 45.01% Corzine (D) 44.99% Daggett (I) 9% Other 1%
NY 23: We have talked this race up an down here at Red Mass Group. With Scozzafava (R) effectively dropping out I think it should return to it's regular voting patterns and throws most of the existing polling out the window. Sure, there will be some bad blood, but this remains a Republican district and Hoffman (C) has the most passionate support. Hoffman is a registered Republican and has pledged to caucus with the Republican Party. I hope he gets correctly listed in the media as a (C) and gets his own line on C-SPAN. I want his existence to serve as a reminder to both Democrats and Republicans alike.
Prediction: Hoffman (C) 55% Owens (D) 40% Scozzafava (R) 5%
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