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Patrick Foran for State Representative

by: Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie

Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 08:23:44 AM EST


According to the WXTK News Radio Patrick Foran will run for State Representative in the 1st Barnstable district.  Current Representative Cleon Turner is a 3 term incumbent with $18,795.23 cash on hand according to his 2008 year end report with the OCPF.

Patrick Foran currently serves as the chairman of the Yarmouth finance committee.  He is former President of the Harwich Dennis Rotary Club and currently serves as a board member of Cape and Island Chapter of the American Red Cross.  More information can be found on his Facebook page and on his campaign web page.

The First Barnstable district is one of the most Republican in the state consisting of the towns of Brewster and Dennis, and precincts 1, 2, 4 and 7, of the town of Yarmouth.  

In 2004, Republican State Representative Thomas George retired creating an open seat.  Cleon Turner defeated Republican Richard Neitz by a 51% to 49% margin.  In 2006, the same two candidates had a rematch with Turner winning by a 52% to 48% margin.  In 2008, he was unopposed.

MORE BELOW THE FOLD....

Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie :: Patrick Foran for State Representative
Obama vs McCain 2008 Results:
FIRST BARNSTABLE
Brewster: 3,897 to 2,531
Dennis: 5,197 to 4,096
Yarmouth: 7,504 to 6,163, 4/7: 4,288 to 3,522

TOTAL 13,382 to 10,149 (est.)
TOTAL 56.9% to 43.1% (est.)

Healey + Mihos vs Patrick + Ross 2006 Results:

FIRST BARNSTABLE
Brewster: 2,187 + 395 to 2,495 + 136
Dennis: 3,472 + 683 to 3,522 + 186
Yarmouth: 4,964 + 1,178 to 4,753 + 214, 4/7: 2,837 + 673 to 2,716 + 122

TOTAL (est.) 8,496 to + 1,751 to 8,733 + 444 = 19,435
TOTAL (est.) 43.7% + 9.0% to 45.0% + 2.3%

The Percentages here are only among the Obama and McCain votes and do not include the 3rd party candidates.  Yarmouth numbers are estimated because I do not have precinct level data.

In 2008, McCain lost by 26% statewide, but only 12.8% in the First Barnstable district.  In 2006, Kerry Healy lost by 21% statewide, but only 1.3% in the district.  If the Mihos and Ross numbers are included, "conservative" leaning candidates lost to "liberal" candidates 16% statewide, but won by 5.4% in the district.

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Why is it... (0.00 / 0)
..that every time a new Republican challenger is written about here, the seat they are going for...state rep, state senate, county or congressional...it is always stated that the seat in question "is one of the most Republican in the state"?

If the seat in question "is one of the most Republican in the state", then why does a Democrat currently hold it?  


District profiling is important. (5.00 / 1)
He holds it because he won his election by a 51% to 49% margin after a Republican retired in 2004.  Democrats currently hold a lot of seats because they are on back to back wave elections.

Profiling districts is an important part of electability.  Districts in Massachusetts are basically of two types here in Massachusetts.  There are districts where Republicans can win and Districts where Republicans can't win.  There really aren't any "safe" Republican districts.  This district is clearly one that Republicans can win.

I do agree that the party is getting a great combination of good candidates, in good districts, and a potentially good year in 2010.

I don't hear you disagreeing that this is "is one of the most Republican in the state."  Brewster, Dennis and Yarmouth aren't exactly Cambridge, Amherst and Provincetown.  The voting history I detailed above clearly shows that.

Bob Hedlund for Minority Leader.


[ Parent ]
Festus - he's the first. (0.00 / 0)

The incumbent is the first Democrat ever - before that, the last person to hold office other than a Republican was a Whig.

And it's worth noting that the Democrat has trimmed his sails to keep that seat - he voted against the sales tax hike, against the the Senate special appointment, and so on.  He has been treated with commensurate favor by the Speakers - a bona fide Republican can represent us better than a denigrated Democrat.

Yr. Obedient Servant, Peter Porcupine, Republican


[ Parent ]
Ed Teague? (0.00 / 0)
Did Ed Teague hold this seat?  I know he was a State Senator and Congressional nominee.  I believe he is/was from Yarmouth.

Bob Hedlund for Minority Leader.

[ Parent ]
Ed was/is from Yarmouth (0.00 / 0)

AS you say, he was a State Senate and Congressional nominee.

But before that, as Rep., he was also Minority Leader.  He was suceeded by Tom George, another Yarmouth Republican, who held the seat from 1996 to 2004 when he retired.

Yr. Obedient Servant, Peter Porcupine, Republican


[ Parent ]
Good luck to him! (0.00 / 0)
Seems like a great candidate! Hope he sets to knocking doors and raising money!

Spoiler Alert - AFAIK, there IS a primary challanger as well. (0.00 / 0)

But Pat is a very good and credible candidate.

Yr. Obedient Servant, Peter Porcupine, Republican

buckyballs magnets (0.00 / 0)

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