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Kurt Hayes for State Representative

by: Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie

Sun Jan 03, 2010 at 16:58:18 PM EST

Kurt Hayes is running for State Representative in the 37th Middlesex district in a rematch with freshman Representative Jen Benson.  According to her 2008 year end reports with OCPF Benson had $8,896.49 cash on hand with $12,000 in outstanding liabilities in the form of a candidate loan.  Kurt Hayes had $1,749.24 cash on hand following their election a year ago with no liabilities.  Kurt Hayes announced his 2010 candidacy early and both of these numbers should change when their 2009 year end reports are filed.

Kurt Hayes ran as an unenrolled candidate in the 2007 special election for the 5th Congressional district when Niki Tsongas defeated Jim Ogonowski by a 51% to 45% margin.  Kurt Hayes received just over 1% of the vote.  In 2008, Kurt Hayes ran for the open State Representative seat vacated by Jamie Eldridge who ran for the State Senate.  Kurt Hayes quickly earned a reputation as an aggressive door to door campaigner.  The Lowell Sun said he "may need a new pair of shoes by the time this election season ends" and endorsed his candidacy. Unfortunately, he fell short losing by a 55.7% to 44.3% margin.  More information can be found on his campaign website or his facebook page.

Kurt Hayes received more than 8 times as many total votes in his State Representative race running as a Republican than he did in his Congressional race running as an unenrolled.  Congressional districts are 16 times the size of State Rep. districts.  This should serve as a valuable and pragmatic  lesson to anyone who is considering running outside the two party system.

The 37th Middlesex district is a winnable district for a Republican that is significantly better than the state average.  In 2002, Mitt Romney defeated Shannon O'Brien by a 9,256 to 6,296 margin carrying every precinct in the district by at least 5%.  Unfortunately, it has been trending more Democratic in recent years.  It consists of the towns of Boxboro, Shirley, Harvard, Lunenburg, precinct 1 in Lancaster and precincts 3,4 and 5 in Acton.  This is just one of the expected rematches from 2008.  I also profiled Kevin Kuros who is in a rematch with Paul Kujawski in the 8th Worcester district and Paul Avella who is in a rematch with James Arciero in the 2nd Middlesex district.  


Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie :: Kurt Hayes for State Representative
In 2002, the seat was open and Jamie Eldgridge (D) defeated Todd Fenniman (R) by a 52% to 48% margin.

In 2004, Jamie Eldgridge (D) defeated T.J Dyer (R) by a 63% to 37% margin.

In 2006, Jamie Eldgridge (D) defeated Kevin Hayes (R) by a 64% to 36% margin.  Kevin and Kurt are not related.

Obama vs McCain 2008 Results:

37th Middlesex
Acton: 7,844 to 3,469, 3/6: 3,922 to 1,735
Boxboro: 1,795 to 993
Harvard: 2,192 to 1,154
Lancaster: 1,767 to 1764, 1/2: 884 to 882
Lunenburg: 2,883 to 2,703
Shirley: 1,605 to 1,416

TOTAL (est): 13,281 to 8,883
TOTAL (est): 59.9% to 40.1%

Healey + Mihos vs Patrick + Ross 2006 Results:
37th Middlesex
Acton: 2,765 + 475 vs 5,069 + 177, 3/6: 1,383 + 238 vs 2,535 + 89
Boxboro: 809 + 106 vs 1,124 + 41
Harvard: 961 + 134 vs 1,640 + 59
Lancaster: 1,174 + 209 vs 1,168 + 56, 1/2: 587 + 105 vs 584 + 28
Lunenburg: 1,869 + 325 vs 2,002 + 94
Shirley: 933 + 218 vs 1,069 + 63

TOTAL (est): 6,542 + 1,126 vs 8,954 + 374 = 16,996
TOTAL (est): 38.5% + 6.6% vs 52.7% + 2.2%

The Percentages here are only among the Obama and McCain votes and do not include the 3rd party candidates.  Acton and Lunenburg numbers are estimated because I do not have precinct level data.

In 2008, McCain lost by 26% statewide, but only 19.8%% in the 37th Middlesex district.  In 2006, Kerry Healey lost by 21% statewide, but only 14.2% in the district.  If the Mihos and Ross numbers are included, "conservative" leaning candidates lost to "liberal" candidates 16% statewide, but lost by only 9.8% in the district.

I have recently started profiling some Republican candidates running for State Representative and State Senate here in Massachusetts.

Kara Fratto State Representative, 30th Middlesex.
Paul Avella State Representative, 2nd Middlesex.
Shaunna O'Connell State Representative, 3rd Bristol.
Kevin Kuros State Representative, 8th Worcester.
Geoff Diehl State Representative, 7th Plymouth.
Patrick Foran State Representative, 1st Barnstable
Ryan Fattman State Representative, 18th Worcester
Brett Schetzsle State Representative, 6th Essex

David Pottier State Senate, 1st Plymouth and Bristol

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This is a prime race for the GOP this fall (5.00 / 1)
Kurt is a smart guy and a great candidate. I think Kurt's biggest problem though is coming from Boxborough. The town is so small, it will be difficult to outweigh Liberal Acton, and Benson's base in Lunenburg, but it can definetly be done.

With the next redistricting, we need to get Acton out of this district though...

(R)- Outside 495

I agree (0.00 / 0)
Normally rematches are tough for Republicans to win here in Massachusetts.  However this year may be different.  2008 was a Democratic wave election and 2010 is shaping up to be a Republican wave election.  Candidates like Hayes, Avella, Kuros and others have an excellent chance.  A rising tide raises all boats and even a small shift from D to R can flip districts.

While votes will be flipped, that's not even required.  It just requires different turnout numbers.  Off-year elections have lower turnout to begin with.  If they keep their 2008 raw totals they will win easily.  I think keeping the raw totals for the Dems will be much harder.  Many low density voters come out in 2008 to vote on national issues that won't be there there in 2010.  Many of these people voted against Hayes because they oppose the war in Iraq or wanted change from Bush.  Many of them will stay home in 2010.

"Never Head of Michael Graham." - Gabriel Gomez.

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