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Morning Massachusetts Senate Race Briefing - Tuesday January 12, 2010 Edition

by: Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno

Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 07:46:50 AM EST


There are seven days until the election.

The final debate was held last night.  You can see our live debate coverage here.  The Boston Herald and the Boston Globe have coverage as well.

Scott Brown yesterday raised $1.3 million dollars for his campaign in a single day money push that is simply amazing.  If you didn't participate yesterday you can today. Just click the banner above.

The Democrats are coming! The Democrats are coming! or so says the Washington Post is reporting that the Democratic Machine has rolled into town.

Sensing that the once-safe Massachusetts Senate special election might be slipping from their grasp, Democrats moved on a number of fronts over the last 24 hours in an attempt to re-establish state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) as the race's frontrunner in her now surprisingly tough fight against state Sen. Scott Brown (R). On the staff level, both Democratic National Committee spokesman Hari Sevugan, a veteran of a number of campaigns including a 2004 Senate race in Kentucky, and Michael Meehan, a longtime Democratic operative with ties to Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), were dispatched to stabilize Coakley's campaign. On the ad front, Coakley -- with an assist from the state Democratic party -- launched her first negative commercial of the contest, attacking Brown for being in "lockstep with Washington Republicans." And finally on fundraising, President Obama sent an email to his list insisting that "the outcome of this race couldn't be important" and asking donors to dig deep to help Coakley. Given that level of activity, it's clear that Democrats are concerned about the state of the race with just one week before voters head to the polls to choose a replacement for the late Ted Kennedy. A few questions to keep an eye on over the coming days: 1) Does the National Republican Senatorial Committee invest in ads in the state and, if so, how heavy is the buy? 2) Do outside conservative groups join the American Future Fund on the airwaves attacking Coakley and, if they do, are there a handful of liberal outside groups who move quickly to counter that strategy? 3) Does the White House send in a surrogate like Vice President Biden -- or even the president himself -- in the final days on the race to remind Massachusetts Democrats of what's at stake? 4) How much more money can Brown raise off of his newfound national notoriety -- he crested $1.1 million collected in just 24 hours on Monday -- and how quickly can he get that money on television to counter what almost certainly will be a negative onslaught from Coakley? 5) How many more independent and/or internal campaign polls will be released in the coming week and what will they say? If Brown can get one or two more polls to validate this is a real race, momentum will be all on his side. The answers to these questions will go a long way to determining whether Brown has a legitimate chance to win or not. Today, Coakley remains a favorite thanks to her financial advantage and the Democratic lean of the state but she is in a much tougher race than she could have imagined even a few weeks ago.
Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno :: Morning Massachusetts Senate Race Briefing - Tuesday January 12, 2010 Edition
Time magazine asks the question "If Ted Kennedy's sea isn't safe..."

Since that poll left Democrats in the state and the nation's capital panicked about a possible upset, a Boston Globe poll found Coakley leading by 15 percentage points and one from the Mellman Group - albeit a Democratic-leaning organization - showed Coakley with a 14-point lead. But more important than the surveys themselves, the Massachusetts Democratic leadership seems to have been awakened by the closeness of the race - as, Coakley hopes, have been Democratic voters.

Google News has a complete list of the 742 stories over the last twenty four hours about this race.  

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Yesterday's debate was interesting......... (0.00 / 0)
I thought Scott Brown did well, but not over the top.  He didn't deliver a knockout blow.  On the other hand Coakley was awful. She looked amateurish at best.  Kennedy came off poorly.

My thoughts:

Scott Brown - Looks good on screen.  Got a bit annoying with his constant reminder that there are 'differences' between he and Martha Coakley.  I can't name a single person that thinks they are the same, or even close.  I particularly enjoyed when Coakley badgered him about his vote for abortion for rape victims and she asked "Am I wrong or am I right?" and Scott answered proudly "You are wrong!".  I think that caught her off guard.  I bet very few, if any, people tell Coakley she is ever wrong.  She has that very masculine attitude about her.  It's a trait I usually see in militant lesbians only.

Martha Coakley - Martha looks tiny and shrewd.  Her face is chiseled and hard and without compassion due to her tight lips and scowl.  I don't know that she scored a single point against Brown in the debate.  If anything she hurt herself.  What struck me most was her comment that the wars we are engaged in are likely not winnable.  Gergen asked how to win in Afghanistan and she remarked "I don't know that we can".  I think that was a huge mistake!  She did come off a bit more likable when she talked about her dogs and skiing.  I wish Brown had said some things like that.  

Joe Kennedy - A distraction to the event - and he knew it.  First off, get a damn haircut.  Second, stop whining about not getting enough coverage in the media, you're lucky to be on stage with the other two people.  Third, glad to see he almost endorsed Scott Brown.  Gergen asked if he (Kennedy) liked one of the other two candidates more than the other.  Kennedy's response was "Scott Brown...except for the tax vote, blah, blah, blah". I think with the race so close Kennedy may be the spoiler he wants to be.

Overall, I don't think anyone changed their mind over last night's debate.  There were no game changers or bombs dropped.  Over the next week I expect the Coakley campaign to get very dirty.  This has become a huge race and the fact that Coakley is not leading by 25 points is a win for the Republicans.  This race is very much winnable for Scott Brown and he should expect some nasty ads directed his way from the Coakley camp.  

If you disagree with me you are a racist homophobe.



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