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Coakley's Internal Poll: Brown +3

by: Paul R. Ferro

Fri Jan 15, 2010 at 17:33:10 PM EST


Blogger Steve Kornacki is reporting that Martha Coakley's internal polling has Brown leading by 3%, 47%-44%.

The last time a public poll showed a Republican leading a Massachusetts Senate race this close to the election was, well....never. There were no public polls released in the week leading up to the 1972 election, the last one won by a Republican (Ed Brooke, was re-elected in a landslide over John Droney). And since then, Democrats have enjoyed the stretch-run advantage in every Senate race in the state. The closest the GOP came was in 1996, when Bill Weld was within a few points of John Kerry just before Election Day; Weld lost that race by seven points.

BMG should get their money back.

If they had asked, we would have told them not to waste their moolah!

Paul R. Ferro :: Coakley's Internal Poll: Brown +3
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Don't know (0.00 / 0)
Just asking...how much validity is there to internal polling?  I mean just by their nature wouldn't they tend to skew toward their own candidate (meaning Brown may have a bigger lead)?  And how are they gauging GOP voters...are they calling them, or just modeling expected turnout and it all GOP votes going to Brown?

Sorry...math geek with a curious mind.

Follow me on twitter @garyrlake


If your internals show you losing... (0.00 / 0)
...prep your concession speech.

This is bad.  Now, the future in uncertain, but if the polls show Brown winning, let me ask you a rhetorical question.

You're a Republican/Brown voter.  It's cold,  wet, and snowy on Tuesday.    You think there's a chance that the GOP may win this race, a massive upset.  Is there ANYTHING that is going to stop you from voting?

Conversely, You're normally a Democrat voter. It's cold, wet, and snowy on Tuesday.  You're pretty sure your gal is going to lose.   She hasn't done anything to earn your vote.  You have to take the kids to music lessons, and then get the groceries, and so many, many, errands to do.  Are you going to go out of your way to vote?

Brown Wins, 52%-47%-1%



They like me, they really, really like me!


[ Parent ]
Another reason motivating Scott voters... (0.00 / 0)
is the national focus on this race, with national news, money, phone call help (from their home PCs), calls into MA, calls from MA to other states.


I think Scott supporters feel, and will feel more thru this weekend, that their vote is actually MULTIPLIED 50x... each of us is voting for the rest of the country as well as for us, our families and children. Its a fervent call to duty.


[ Parent ]
clearly none of you (4.00 / 1)
have ever worked on a campaign. Usually internals are a conservative assessment. Always prep for the worst.  

Wise advice (0.00 / 0)
I've been trying not to sound too eyeore-ish (and not always succeeding).  The only feeling I can compare this to is the final moments before Faulk tossed the ball to first for the last out of the '04 world series.  I had to read the headlines to make sure I hadn't dreamed the whole thing.

So this is it guys....into the ninth inning, ahead by one, with 2 outs and the bases loaded...OBAMA just stepped to the plate.

Follow me on twitter @garyrlake


[ Parent ]
Hells Forecast for Tuesday (0.00 / 0)

Bitter Cold Tuesday with calls for a deep freeze.
Democrats are invited to an all skate on Hades Pond  



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