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Can Coakley Hold Democratic Strongholds?

by: Garrett Quinn

Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 14:58:27 PM EST


(My apologies to RMG Contributor VESuggestions He got the story up first. - promoted by Garrett Quinn)

New polls from Fox 25 and Suffolk University show Martha Coakley losing badly in so-called bellwether communities Peabody, Fitchburgh and Gardner.

A source inside the Coakley campaign tells me her internals show her losing badly in Lowell and struggling in Worcester, too.

Brown has surged to a double-digit lead over Coakley in three Massachusetts communities identified as bellwethers, according to the latest SuffolkUniversitybellwether polling of the race for U.S. Senate.

Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody all show solid margins for Brown, the state senator running against Coakley. The cities were identified as bellwether communities because in the most recent "like election" - the November 2006 Senate race between the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and Republican challenger Kenneth Chase - the results in all three communities were within 1 percentage point of the actual statewide results for each candidate. Additionally, party registration in those cities is similar to the statewide voter makeup.

On Tuesday night watch for the returns from the major cities like Boston, Lowell, Springfield and Worcester. If she can't win 50% of the vote there she is toast.  

Garrett Quinn :: Can Coakley Hold Democratic Strongholds?
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Watch out for the Menino machine (0.00 / 0)
He owes see-no-evil Martha big time (see emailgate). Also look for Chuck Turner's district.

We need to get to people who supported Doug Bennett in the city.

If Southie goes for Coakley (Irish ya know) there could be a problem. Any take on what's going on in union-vote-rich Southie?


"Work is the essence of Man."


Southie goes Brown (0.00 / 0)
I predict Southie goes Brown just like it went McCain.

The Reagan Democrats of Southie have seen Martha's campaign take a jackhammer to the party they use to be a part of. Just like I was surprised at the amount of signs, bumper stickers, and positive feedback I saw for McCain in Southie last year(which surprised me then), I'm seeing again for Brown.


[ Parent ]
Interesting (5.00 / 1)
If you average the results of the 2002 and 2006 Gubernatorial Elections, and the 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections and compare the results in each of these Cities to the State Average, Gardner is about 1.69% more Democratic, Fitchburg is 0.06% more Democratic, and Peabody is 7.16% more Republican than the State Average.

If Brown is leading by double digits in each, its a pretty good sign that the State Average is going to be pretty decidedly for Brown.

Coakley is in DEEP $hit

(R)- Outside 495



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