Perry vs Hedlund Primary: By the Numbers

Hedlund's seat to lose (0.00 / 0)

Thanks for the analysis but I'm not really sure a special election primary will be very analogous to what I'm sure will be a hotly contested GOP primary come September.

Give that, I can't really see a path to victory for Jeff Perry here.

Perry doesn't represent all of the towns listed, i.e. he has precincts in some, whereas Hedlund has all of his towns, plus a decent foothold in Quincy, the largest city in the district. Hedlund has a higher statewide profile overall and has already beaten a Delahunt in the past, as well as several other tough democrats.

For those reasons Hedlund will also be viewed as the candidate with the best shot to unseat Cong. Delahunt, which I think this year will trump whatever ideological props that Perry might bring as the more true "conservative" (I peg Hedlund as more of a libertarian-style republican).


Christy for Governor!

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by: lsteffens28 @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 13:09:24 PM UTC

Fair point (0.00 / 0)

I included a link for the 2008 presidential primary if you want to investigate further.  The 2006 primary (which would be the same cycle and best indicator) was not contested.

I did the post not to make a point, but rather for the sake of the research.  I was curious as to what the results would be so I looked it up and did the math.  I began writing it before I knew the outcome of those results.

Bob Hedlund for Minority Leader.

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by: Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 13:55:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

2006 WAS contested between Ken Chase and Kevin Scott... (5.00 / 1)

...for the GOP Nomination for U.S. Senate.

So that may be a indicator of turnout as well.

"(He) is a Meathead"

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by: Paul R. Ferro @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 15:16:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, I forgot (5.00 / 1)

I also forgot who I voted for and why....

I do remember it was a 51-49 statewide election that nobody cared about.

Bob Hedlund for Minority Leader.

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by: Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 16:32:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I voted for Kevin (0.00 / 0)

He had begun his campaign early, went around and visited TC's and groups, and had the guts to declare against Kennedy before it became politically fashionable, and a well heeled establishment candidate parachuted in to failure.

That's generally how my support goes...

Yr. Obedient Servant, Peter Porcupine, Republican

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by: Peter Porcupine @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 18:41:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm Giving the Edge to Perry (0.00 / 0)

First, Perry's district straddles the middle of the 10th while Hedlund's is at the northern periphery.  That gives Perry the edge in being identified as the candidate that is the Cape Cod candidate.  As was noted in a post today by Jack Gately: http://www.redmassgroup.com/di...  (an extremely interesting posting--great contribution)

3) Republican primary candidates would be wise to observe and learn from the 1996 example [See Gerry Studds elections for additional proof]. The Cape has it's own regional identity which far surpasses that of say, the South Shore, and in some instances can contribute to margins in excess of 75% for the preferred Cape candidate. The identity is supported by a separate media market (daily newspaper and talk radio), whoever can pitch themselves best, as the true Cape Cod candidate, can have a distinct advantage in the upcoming Republican primary.

Second, Perry has been getting out beyond his district.  He's been in the Lowell area multiple times.  That should give him the edge in his fundraising efforts.  

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by: yankeepundit @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 15:33:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks Yankee Pundit, glad you enjoyed it. (0.00 / 0)

jackgately.com

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by: Jack Gately @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 16:23:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Disagree completely (0.00 / 0)

"Perry's district straddles the middle of the 10th"

This is true geographically but it completely ignores where the people live on the 10th. The Cape is sparsely populated whereas the South Shore is where the biggest bulk of the people live. I'd honestly say that only about 25-33% of the population of this district is "over the bridge". Hedlund has his district and the regional affinity of almost the entire South Shore/Plymouth County. Perry might make a dent into South Plymouth voters who identify with Cape people, but thats about it. South Shore people are South Shore people, Cape people are Cape people. One group takes Route Three to work, the other takes Route Six. Theres not much animosity, but when a Hanover guy goes to the polls and all things being equal he votes for the Weymouth guy and not the Sandwich one, trust me. All comes down to the migrations patterns (everyone on the South Shore is originally from Quincy or Weymouth), and the way the local economies work (if they don't hail from Quincy or Weymouth, they do business in their area).

Hedlund towns:
Duxbury, Hingham, Hull, Marshfield, Norwell, Scituate, Cohasset, Weymouth, Quincy, Braintree, Hanover, Pembroke

Potential Toss ups(which I say still lean Hedlund): Kingston, Plymouth, Carver

Perry towns:
Bourne, Barnstable, Mashpee, Sandwich, Falmouth, Dennis, Yarmouth, Brewster, Harwich, Chatham, Orleans, Eastham, Welfleet, P-Town, Nantucket, MV

Perry's towns may outnumber Bob's, but population wise you can't get much smaller than places like Wellfleet and P-Town at about 3,000 a piece.  Don't get me wrong still like Jeff, and I'm not positive Bob runs but this is the outcome. This district could not compliment Bob Hedlund any better, its actually quite stunning.

Bank. on. it.

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by: South Shore Republican @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 17:56:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Steffen - Cape Codders are MAD primary voters! (0.00 / 0)

I did some analysis for the upcoming convention, looking at 2008 Presidental primary, 2004 primary, and turnout for 2006 and 2002.

To summarize the numbers - Barnstable County has a reliable and disportionate number of GOP primary voters. It may be an age thing (many seniors), it may be a town meeting thing (all but Barnstable have open town meetings, which IMO enhances overll civic participation and encourages turnout on non-Presidential/Gubernatorial election dates).  For example, while 2008 turnout for GOP in Essex and Barnstable county were roughly equivalent, PRIMARY turnout was about double.

Primary turnout isn't predicted by population overall, ESPECIALLY for the GOP.  Barnstable, at 40, has the largest 2010 convention delegation to the convention in the STATE, and its voting in the 2002 general is only a reflection of its primary voting.

We're the Willie Sutton of primary votes - we're where the money is!

Yr. Obedient Servant, Peter Porcupine, Republican

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by: Peter Porcupine @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 17:49:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is true (5.00 / 1)

I like your analysis because I haven't been able to figure it out, its really a conundrum considering as a porportion of votes in general elections there are now more Republican votes on the South Shore.

The South Shore I think also is made of more conservative-leaning unenrolleds who might not participate in the primary but vote in the general. The Cape on the other hand does have an old school Republican base that still ID as Republicans and vote in the primarys but might not be counted on to vote as reliably republican as they once might have been (nor as reliably in generals as aformentioned unenrolleds on the South Shore).

My second guess is that there is nothing else to do on the Cape after Labor Day but to vote! (KIDDING)

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by: South Shore Republican @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 18:00:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I mean, REALLY - the 2004 GOP Presidential primary! (3.00 / 1)

George Bush was unopposed.  But we still pulled ballots, perhaps as an Atta-Boy.

I STILL use that list as a recruiting tool!

Yr. Obedient Servant, Peter Porcupine, Republican

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by: Peter Porcupine @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 18:21:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Does ANYONE want Joe Malone? (5.00 / 2)

Here at RMG, out in the "real world," personal connections, facebook, email, whatever....

I am hearing from people who want Perry and people who want Hedlund.  They both have strong support, and most of their supporters also like the other guy.  I have yet to hear from ANYONE who wants Joe Malone to be the nominee.  The man was elected statewide twice.  Are you out there?  Time to speak up for your guy if you are.  Your silence has been deafening.

Bob Hedlund for Minority Leader.

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by: Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 14:59:35 PM UTC

nope n/t (5.00 / 1)

Follow me on twitter @garyrlake

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by: garyrlake @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 16:10:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm onlu grateful that his hopeless campaign and remarks served as a starter's gun for others to declare (5.00 / 1)

Yr. Obedient Servant, Peter Porcupine, Republican

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by: Peter Porcupine @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 18:37:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bizarre! (0.00 / 0)

Malone's behavior is simply bizarre. I have been TRYING to reach out to Malone people to try to figure out his angle and see what I can do to talk them out of it, but the problem has been that I don't think he actually has any.

Malone can really f-up the career of Jeff and Bob by prevailing in a primary, without having a really credible shot at the office which both Jeff and Bob do. They're the future of the party and have done the legwork for years.

If anyone knows how and where these people can be contacted, let me know. I'm growing convinced that they don't actually exist and Joe is just absolutely full of it.

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by: South Shore Republican @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 17:32:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hedlund's advantages: Quincy and Unenrolleds... (5.00 / 1)

Obviously I got no horse in this race, and I think this narrow analysis of registered Rs is biased in favor of Perry (sure if makes sense that he has a higher concentration of registered Rs on the Cape).

Unerolleds WILL be voting in the primary...to some unknown extent and by virtual of the fact that Hedlund has a proven track record of winning communities with stronger unenrolled %, indicates he'll do much better than Perry with that group.

Also, Hedlund is very well known in the biggest community--Quincy.  Both Weymouth and Quincy share the same daily paper that have covered Hedlund for years and, no doubt, Hedlund has worked hard on many common issues that involves the bordering communities of Quincy and Weymouth.  For all practical purposes--Hedlund has Quincy as a base also.

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by: Simple J. Malarkey @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 17:44:42 PM UTC

Name ID (0.00 / 0)

You are right.  Unenrolled voters will vote in the GOP primary this year.  Many of them will vote for Governor, or things other than the congressional primary.  On down-the-ballot races Name ID is key.

I would bet greater than 50% Malone does not run.  I just don't see the support.

Bob Hedlund for Minority Leader.

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by: Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 18:59:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting analysis (0.00 / 0)

I can't figure out what to make of the high primary numbers on the Cape. Its possible the Brown campaign might have focused on them early and turned them out early banking on a strong showing in the general from the South Shore. It could also be that there were primaries in these towns in the elections you sampled on the local level.

Either way it doesn't correspond at all to population or general election voters. Very strange stuff, but we also haven't seen a real primary in years and years.

I don't dismiss it out of hand at all though, pretty valid point to Jeff's viability in a primary. Like Jeff a great deal, but I still say Hedlund would be the best bet if he runs.

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by: South Shore Republican @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 20:15:37 PM UTC

I'd like to do more (0.00 / 0)

This race requires more analysis.  Special elections have irregular results, but these findings pop off the page non the less.

Bob Hedlund for Minority Leader.

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by: Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie @ Sat Feb 06, 2010 at 20:24:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

SSR - it's a continum (0.00 / 0)

We have high primary turnout in specials, regular, governor, etc.

Also, out town elections are all March - May, so it isn't driven by local elections either.

I simply prefer to think that others have low turnout.

Yr. Obedient Servant, Peter Porcupine, Republican

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by: Peter Porcupine @ Sun Feb 07, 2010 at 18:52:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hedlund a libertarian? (0.00 / 0)

I just googled Bob Hedlund for congress and came across a positive article about Hedlund from a Texas libertarian site (complete with Hedlund in 'rocker' garb). Apparently he is a big Ron Paul fan, supports drug reform and a non interventionist foreign policy? While I would agree with him on those last two points is this what the voters who elected Scott "torture them don't defend them" Brown really want? Plus how does this affect his marriage and abortion stances and would that also alienate primary voters?

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by: jconway @ Mon Feb 08, 2010 at 06:51:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fair question (5.00 / 1)

First off, a "libertarian" is not a Republican that likes abortion.  I know you did not say it was, but some people in the media seam to think it is and I wanted to get that off my chest.  Libertarians want to reduce the size and scope of government.  No libertarian would ever pass a questionnaire by Planned Parenthood or Mass Equality.  Those organizations seek a giant massive government that forces a left wing agenda on the rest of us.  On with your two specific points with regard to libertarianism.

1) Abortion:  There are actually a lot of Pro-life "libertarians" including Ron Paul.  http://www.l4l.org/

1. Human offspring are human beings, persons from conception, whether that takes place as natural or artificial fertilization, by cloning, or by any other means.

2. Abortion is homicide -- the killing of one person by another.

3. One's right to control one's own body does not allow violating the obligation not to aggress. There is never a right to kill an innocent person. Prenatally, we are all innocent persons.

4. A prenatal child has the right to be in the mother's body. Parents have no right to evict their children from the crib or from the womb and let them die. Instead both parents, the father as well as the mother, owe them support and protection from harm.

5. No government, nor any individual, has a just power to legally "de-person" any one of us, born or preborn.

6. The proper purpose of the law is to side with the innocent, not against them.

2) Gay Marriage:  I have never met a "libertarian" who supports law being unconstitutionally written by the courts.  Senator Hedlund has always supported the citizen petition and voting for the amendment is the only means available to have the law being decided by the people and not the courts.

Furthermore, it is my understanding that his preferred position is the most libertarian position.  Quite simply that the government should not be in the business of licensing marriage to begin with.  Gay marriage would neither be banned, nor licensed with forced acceptance.  Incidentally, this position is also my position.

Bob Hedlund for Minority Leader.

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by: Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie @ Mon Feb 08, 2010 at 13:44:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That said, a Libertarian isn't necessarily pro-life either. (0.00 / 0)

I consider myself in the Libertarian whing of the party, which is where the Senator resides also.

We want to actively shrink government and taxation.  We abhor state intervention into personal life.  AND imo, that includes the right as well as the left.  (And when I say 'we' I have no idea where the Sen. stands personally - I mean libertarian leaning in gneral)

To me, the lowest point of the Bush administration was the Terry Schiavo matter.  Government intrusion worthy of a Green Party Progressive banning Fluff.

(NOT to equate life with Fluff, but to illustrate the micromanaging intrusiveness of the parties involved.)

Yr. Obedient Servant, Peter Porcupine, Republican

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by: Peter Porcupine @ Mon Feb 08, 2010 at 20:32:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just a question (0.00 / 0)

It would seem rather clear that in order for either Perry or Hedlund to be competitive against Delahunt - or any other Democrat if the rumor of Delahunt's possible retirement is accurate - they'll have to raise at least $1.5 million, preferably close to twice that. Neither one has shown the ability to raise that kind of money.

What is "bizarre" about Malone's behavior?  He certainly wouldn't have any trouble raising that kind of money.

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by: smallfish @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 13:06:35 PM UTC

Hey Look! (0.00 / 0)

Someone is supporting Malone here. . .Sorry for the sarcasm.  

Neither Hedlund or Perry has had the need to raise 1.5 million before, so to just flat out say they can't becuase they haven't done it before is not a strong argument. Many things have been done by folks who haven't done them before, like, I dunno, Brown winning the senate race?

I have no doubt that either will be able to make a strong effort in fundraising, though you are right that it will be a challenge.  

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by: soapbox @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 16:19:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

WE GOT A LIVE ONE! (0.00 / 0)

Seriously send me an email or give me a call if youre a Malone person. I'm curious to hear what Joe's up to and will keep an open mind.

Sheehansa@yahoo.com

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by: South Shore Republican @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 21:43:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]