Baker's gain since our last poll is eight points, compared to just four points for Patrick.
3. Baker's name ID is tracking Patrick's 2006 numbers.
While Charlie is just seven points back, he is still not all that well-known in the state, as his image is 32% favorable/15% unfavorable, with 53% of voters either having no impression or having never heard of him. Those who think these might be low should understand that Charlie's current image score is almost IDENTICAL to both POS and Suffolk University August 2006 polling regarding Deval Patrick (POS - 34%-14%/52%, Suffolk - 36%-14%/51%).
Charlie's potential for picking up support is pretty clear - among those voters in the state who have heard of Charlie Baker, he leads Patrick by 39%-37% on the trial heat. He's leading by 12 points among voters who rank their election interest as a "9 or a 10" (44% Baker, 32% Patrick, 16% Cahill).
Bottom Line
Despite being a first time candidate who was not that well-known coming into the race, Charlie Baker is clearly closing the gap in this race as Massachusetts voters continue to have doubts about Deval Patrick. Baker is picking up support not only among Independents, but among those voters who say the state is on the wrong track. He is gradually becoming the "go-to" candidate for "change" in the state.
It's helpful to put this race in perspective. Charlie Baker's current image among Massachusetts voters is identical to where Deval Patrick was four years ago.
With a little more than 80 days left in this race, Charlie Baker is right where he wants to be - single digits back in a political environment favoring the outsider/challenger candidate against two incumbents, with a very positive image and room to grow on the ballot.
