Déjà vu 2010 Repeating Itself?

You Hope (0.00 / 0)

"I hope there is a master list of every voter in the commonwealth that the State GOP is maintaining.  I hope every voter has been called and been identified as either Warren or Brown or Undecided."

There is such a list, and the Brown campaign has made A LOT of calls. Unfortunately, its not really possible to know how each voter will vote. Many people will simply refuse to state as much.  

(R)- Outside 495

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by: MerrimackMan @ Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 04:10:48 AM UTC

Show me (0.00 / 0)

an unenrolled undecided voter that has actually read the GOP national platform.  Perception is reality.  They get the platform spoonfed by the media and negative ads....and they won't paint the platform in a positive light.  I'd distance myself too...in Massachusetts.

"I acknowledge having racist and classist and sexist feelings of white male superiority." -John Howard

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by: ElectricStrawberry @ Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 12:00:32 PM UTC

Too bad Obama came out for gay marriage (0.00 / 0)

Now Brown will have to work harder to claim to be "to the left of Barack Obama on social issues." That sure helped Baker lose here, during the election year that Republicans cleaned up around the rest of the country. But Brown can still make the same mistake by claiming it is "settled law" and not mentioning the extreme Democratic positions on sex change surgery for children, genetic engineering to try to make babies from same-sex parents, stripping procreation rights from everyone's marriage, etc.

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by: John Howard @ Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 15:38:58 PM UTC

Great Message, John (0.00 / 0)

The voters in this state deserve to hear a debate on the issues.  Democrats and republicans have very different views on many social and economic issues.  Scott Brown's efforts to run away from the Republican party is depriving us of a valuable discussion about those differing views.  

When Scott Brown loses his election, the Mass GOP will suffer double losses.    Besides losing a senate seat, the Mass GOP will have lost a valuable opportunity to express their opinion.

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by: BlueWatch @ Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 17:01:45 PM UTC

Early in the election cycle (0.00 / 0)

I stressed to the powers that be that it should be Brown's campaign that spearheaded, and organized the GOTV, networking with all the candidates, state committees, and local RTCs.  If not because he had much to lose, then because he had the biggest war chest.  It would be a win/win for all if this had happened, but as of recently, when asked, there is no plan in place, or at least being divulged, so some ambitious locals are organizing on a local level only.  How powerful and important it would be to have this orchestrated and covered from the top down so that we could, modestly, compete against the machine that will be in full swing on election day, illegals, dead people, and all.

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by: Term Limits @ Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 17:54:57 PM UTC

How did this happen? (5.00 / 1)

How did the lead occur -

#1) Our Candidates began to waffle on the issues which make us Republicans... and started losing their own base.

Pander to Emily's list.. distance yourself from the National GOP... deny our National Republican Platform... Deja Vu?

#2) Folks underestimated one man : John Walsh.

Way too much thinking on how it happened.  It actually has happened simply because of math:

There are 1.2 million likely voting dems, who either watched the democrat convention or heard that Warren spoke at the convention and said a lot of dreamy stuff.  That's 42% of the vote right there.

Probably 1/2 of the 1.3 million likely voting independents watched the convention too and those watchers lean Brown and split 60:40.  There's another 11% points or so for Warren and there you go, 53% for Warren.  

The convention publicity will decline but Brown's going to have to pull a big turnout from the independents.

It's just traditional Mass Math.  The Democrat could enter Willie Horton for Gov and he'd win 42%.  The problem is that there's a small chance that Warren's may be a better candidate than Horton.  

Elizabeth Warren: a bankruptcy professor, bankrupt of ideas

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by: gary @ Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 18:19:25 PM UTC

Its all about the Math - and knowing who your supporters are (0.00 / 0)

You need more voters who support your candidate to go the polls and vote - than the other side.

Every Campaign does a voter id, but in 20 years, I have never seen the MA GOP do anything with that data.  They spend tens of thousands of dollars on phone calls and then sit on the individual voter names... maybe they get a direct mail piece.

Its simple math -
You need to determine how many votes you need to win.
You need to identify every name that makes up that vote and the individual probability of that voter actually voting.

Let me tell you what is happening -

Read the Campaign Finance Reports of not only the candidates, but also the organizations such as MoveOn and the Unions.

They have purchased thousands of tablets and smart phones.

Right now they are compiling a central database of every voter in the nation... and how they are going to vote.
(if you dont know how the voter will vote because the voter wont say... then you count that vote against you or if your optimisitic... and a dreamer... undecided.)

Every Battleground State and Warren will have access realtime to that voter data.

On election day, In Key precents... their pollworkers will be equipped with Tablets and SmartPhones.. and they will log in every one who votes at the time they vote.  That information will be captured realtime and fed to the central database.

From a central command, calls will then go out to those who they have identified as supporters and who have not voted yet.  They will get every one of their votes out.

In 2010, much of this was done by paper... but if you assume John Walsh is content with just repeating 2010... that would be underestimating hom.  He wants to out do himself.

When they leaflet - its targeted to undecided voters and securing their support.  Its not a blanket leaflet of a town or city.

They are rifled in their approach and they will execute their plan!

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by: JohnBriare @ Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 21:29:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That was precisely what the Dem's did in 2010 John! (0.00 / 0)

And if some registered Dem could not make it to the polls as it got closer to closing time, I swear they sent some one in their place, (as I didn't recognize 10% of the voters the last hour in my small town that I grew up in)!

All the Dem's ships rose with the tide!

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by: billnick @ Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 14:15:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How did this happen? Oh for heavens sake, (0.00 / 0)

Arithmetic --there are more moderate middle of the road Republicans AND Independents And Democrats than there are bigoted birthers, purist right to lifers and odd ball libertarians in this grand Commonwealth of ours.

Learn how to enjoy being a purist, a member of a ideological minority and losing.  

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by: StartedoutRepublican @ Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 21:30:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Every one of us should be making calls (5.00 / 1)

Rob makes a great point in his intro- make a change.  As much as we enjoy griping about the management of this campaign or that, we are not powerless to do something about it.

At a recent event in Plymouth, Rob asked a group of activists how many had been to the Plymouth Brown HQ to make GOTV calls.  Surprisingly few raised their hands.  These are just the sort of people who should be making the calls.  Eating breakfast, listening to rah rah speeches, and posting witty bon mots on blog sites will only go so far.

Brown does have a plan to get his voters out.  I know because I've been to the HQ and made the calls.  I could do a lot more, and so could every one of us.    

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by: Bravehaht @ Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 21:36:15 PM UTC

Scott Brown's strategy. (0.00 / 0)

Does it help or hurt down ticket Republicans?  

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"That it ceased to exist, I'll grant you, but whether or not it failed cannot be definitively said." - Metropolitan (1990)

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by: Patrick @ Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 22:47:37 PM UTC

Esquire picked up your post. (0.00 / 0)

http://www.esquire.com/blogs/p...

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"That it ceased to exist, I'll grant you, but whether or not it failed cannot be definitively said." - Metropolitan (1990)

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by: Patrick @ Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 23:51:35 PM UTC

Proudly Defend our Platform (0.00 / 0)

I would proudly defend our National Platform anytime or anyplace. Maybe its time we had a real debate on what it really means to be a Republican.  As long as left wing publications define the interpretation of the platform for the general public... and we stay silent.. the truth will never be known.  And we will be painted with a brush that is simply not true.  Only we, as Republicans, can be our own voices!  

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by: JohnBriare @ Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 00:18:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]