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Fed's Investigation of Oil Futures Markets Revealed

by: Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno

Thu May 29, 2008 at 15:38:24 PM EDT


I have suspected for a while that the price of oil is being artificially inflated by hedge fund managers and others.  I had no proof so I haven't blogged about it.  However it seems the Feds think there is something amiss with the oil futures  markets.   I believe that the hedge funds and other money mangers which control vast amounts of institutional i.e. union pension funds, and endowment wealth have used oil to make up for their losses in the subprime market.  

Federal regulators are six months into a wide-ranging investigation of U.S. oil markets, with a focus on possible price manipulation.
more stories like this

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Thursday said it started the probe in December and took the unusual step of publicizing it "because of today's unprecedented market conditions."

Crude prices, which on Thursday hovered around $127 a barrel, have risen more than 42 percent since early December. Gasoline prices are nearing a national average of $4 a gallon, up from about $3.20 a year ago.

The commission said details of the investigation remain confidential, but announced a handful of other initiatives designed to increase transparency of U.S. and international energy futures markets.

For example, the CFTC said it will immediately require monthly reports from institutional investors who manage funds designed to mimic the price of crude oil and other energy futures. The goal, the agency said, is to identify the amount of such index trading and to "ensure that this type of trading activity is not adversely impacting the price discovery process."

The CFTC also said it has reached an agreement with its British counterpart and InterContinental Exchange Inc.'s Futures Europe to expand surveillance of energy futures contracts with U.S. delivery points, including the benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude, which trades on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

A Senate subcommittee investigation last year found that hedge fund Amaranth Advisors LLC, which collapsed in 2006 after losing more than $6 billion in natural-gas trades, had shifted its activities to ICE from the regulated Nymex to avoid trading limits, and that the "excessive speculation" raised homeowners' heating bills.

Speculation has been cited as one on many factors contributing to surging petroleum prices, along with assumptions about new supplies, limited demand growth, possible supply disruptions overseas and the dollar's depressed value against other currencies.

Hopefully this action will help to stabilize prices.  Even OPEC said they can't figure out why oil isn't 60-70 per barrel because based on supply and demand that is where it should be.  

Another completely unsubstantiated hunch, Soros has something to do with it.  I thought he did during the spike of 2004 and think so now.  

Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno :: Fed's Investigation of Oil Futures Markets Revealed
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This raises an interesting question for discussion here (5.00 / 1)
A while back there was an extensive back and forth about the Bear Stearns failure and the role of the free market versus regulators.

If it were to turn out that the 40% increase in the price of gasoline was fundamentally caused by market manipulators trading on oil futures, and this practice was technically legal, would the impact of such practice warrant more aggressive regulation?

Set aside who would be determining the nature of the regulation (i.e., Barney Frank) -- just the general notion of increasing trading scrutiny to prohibit market manipulation of commodity prices.

Remember, when Bunker Hunt and his brother attempted to corner the silver market in the 1980's, they weren't foiled by the market itself -- they were foiled by changes in the regulatory structure (both at the CFTC and the Fed) which caused the price of silver to collapse.

Would this be a good thing to occur with oil?


I have to think (0.00 / 0)
that it is easier to corner some markets than others.  The global oil market has to be one of the biggest there is, and I have to think therefore difficult for any person or organization to seriously influence on their own.  Perhaps if lots of them got together...  

But I suspect that this price spike is just a bubble - either that or it reflects the real supply and demand conditions in the market today.  Lets hope for the former.

Politicians will try and stick their noses into anything at all that will carry popular support.



[ Parent ]
I think it is a coordinated effort (0.00 / 0)
by hedge funds to recover the losses they made in the subprime market.  The hedge funds and other institutional investors drove that market. They are causing the bubble now.  It's interesting because while the union leadership decry high gas prices it is their pension funds that are driving up the price of oil by playing the commodities market.  

What is truly lost on most people is that it is the union pension funds, and university endowments that control a lot of "corporate America".  


[ Parent ]
wow, a conspiracy! (0.00 / 0)
You really think the hedge funds got together and decided to drive up the price of oil?

Because they are down on housing?  

Don't you think they are always rabidly chasing profit, regardless of past performance?

Anyway if you are right then it must be a bubble, and thats good.  So lets hope that its a bubble one way or the other.



[ Parent ]
there's a line between (0.00 / 0)
chasing profit and manipulation of a market.

I am still waiting for the outcome of the SEC's examination of the hedge funds' involvement in the collapse of Bear Stearns.


[ Parent ]
You may have a point about Soros. (0.00 / 0)
His company Perseus does alot of energy speculating and is also tied to many hedge funds.

"I ask none to live for me, nor do I live for any others" Anthem by Ayn Rand  

and.... (0.00 / 0)
Soros is an anti-American socialist crap bag... 2+2=

It's a win-win-win for him.
Make some money, make things tough in America, and help get a libtard elected President.

"From MY cold dead hands"


[ Parent ]
Yes Soros is a money-making socialist... (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Ya..and (0.00 / 0)
John Edwards, Al Gore, and many other limousine (do as I say not as I do) liberals fit that category..
An oxymoron and disgusting yes, but I call it as I see it.

A hypocrite double standard shitbag pretty much sums up a
"Money-making socialist"...

Now I took your comment for sarcasm Festus. My deepest apologies if you were just making a correct observation.

"From MY cold dead hands"


[ Parent ]
No He's an Anti-American Ass (0.00 / 0)
and the main Financial contributor to MoveOn.org

"I ask none to live for me, nor do I live for any others" Anthem by Ayn Rand  

[ Parent ]
So, which is it??? (0.00 / 0)
This post indicates the government thinks it's futures trading that is causing the disparity in oil prices but the treasury chief says it's from supply and demand???

Whoever is telling us why we are getting soaked needs to get on the same page!

"Don't let me get away with it. Check me out. Don't be the sucker generation." -Ronald Reagan

www.inBrockton.com



Oil Is Traded (0.00 / 0)
on the Commodities Markets By the purchase and sale of Contracts to be delivered sometime in the future that's why it's called "Futures" trading. Hedge funds could leverage massive amounts of oil because they have a massive pool of money with which to purchase Contracts. If this happens the price of oil goes up even though the Hedge fund managers have no intention of using the oil and refining it themselves. They buy the oil Futures contract "speculating" that the price will go up and when it does they sell. A large scale purchase of contracts has the effect of creating a false demand driving up the price in sort of a self fulfilling prophecy and in turn driving up the prices of basically everything. The dynamic of supply and demand is in play but it just may be the demand of futures contracts.

"I ask none to live for me, nor do I live for any others" Anthem by Ayn Rand  

[ Parent ]


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