Obligatory Predictions for Tuesday Open Thread...

Pat's pessimistic predictions. (0.00 / 0)

Obama:332
Romney:206

Warren:54
Brown:46

Tierney ekes out a win over Tisei because of Fishman.

Bielat loses.

Akin wins. Mourdock does not.

Haven't followed the state races, but I lean toward thinking it will be a massacre.

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"That it ceased to exist, I'll grant you, but whether or not it failed cannot be definitively said." - Metropolitan (1990)

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by: Patrick @ Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 18:11:26 PM UTC

Fishman will get less than 2% of vote... (0.00 / 0)

Any sane person of the Libertarian persuasion would understand that a vote for Fishman is a vote for Tierney.  Would you vote for Fishman?  Any Libertarian voting for Fishman instead of Tiesi is either completely cynical aboputour system (understandable) or brain dead.  Any thing more than 2% for Fishman (the cynical folks) represents brain dead Libertarian wing.    

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by: Simple J. Malarkey @ Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 21:50:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perhaps. (0.00 / 0)

The last time there was a poll that included him he was at 7%.  That was a while ago so his presence is a big question mark at this point. The way voters are fed up with both parties I can see him maintaining that 7% or even increasing it slightly.  Party over people, amiright?

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"That it ceased to exist, I'll grant you, but whether or not it failed cannot be definitively said." - Metropolitan (1990)

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by: Patrick @ Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 21:55:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

people over party I mean... (0.00 / 0)

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"That it ceased to exist, I'll grant you, but whether or not it failed cannot be definitively said." - Metropolitan (1990)

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by: Patrick @ Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 21:55:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Many third party folks poll well early... (0.00 / 0)

From Ross Perot to Tim Cahill...but in the end, voters take a harder look at what they are doing and vote more strategically.  Sure you can cite a few exceptions--King in Maine jumps out--but for every exception, I'll find 10 races where that occurred.  

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by: Simple J. Malarkey @ Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 22:30:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fishman will get his votes from... (0.00 / 0)

1)  Voters who don't like Tierney, but can't bring themselves to vote for any Republican under any circumstance.  They mostly don't know anything about Fishman.

2)  At the other extreme, there are voters who might happen to know something about Fishman, but are otherwise clueless about the politics of the race:  "Fishman looked good -- who are those other guys?"  "Fishman's a computer guy -- that's exactly what we need in Congress!"  

3)  And there's probably a few voters committed to always voting against "the whole steenkin' system."  

#1 and 3 are protest voters who would have otherwise blanked the race.  #2 would not be a predictable voter for either major party candidate.

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by: Couves @ Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 23:48:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Much of Fishman votes will come from #1... (0.00 / 0)

...it is a good point.

#2...how many voters know anything about Fishman?  Maybe 10?

#3...those folks will blank the race.

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by: Simple J. Malarkey @ Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 03:49:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Westfield...you omitted a standard disclaimer... (5.00 / 1)

...and they all lived happily ever after...

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by: Simple J. Malarkey @ Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 21:45:44 PM UTC

He's right about Akin. (0.00 / 0)

This is one of those "karma is a bitch" things.

Brown went out of his way to hit Akin hard.  He didn't have to do that exactly.
http://www.boston.com/politica...

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"That it ceased to exist, I'll grant you, but whether or not it failed cannot be definitively said." - Metropolitan (1990)

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by: Patrick @ Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 22:10:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Prediction Standards... (0.00 / 0)

My standard is common sense and logic. Seemingly less and less of that exists today.

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by: westfield05 @ Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 22:06:18 PM UTC

One person's common sense is another person BS. (0.00 / 1)

Can you give some reasoning behind you're common sense?  Because you are really going out on a limb on several of your predictions.  That's fine.  If you outline "common sense" reasons and end up wrong, at least folks will understand your reasoning and give you a pass.  But if you're wrong and you provide just a dismissive "common sense", then you'll look like a complete fool.  

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by: Simple J. Malarkey @ Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 22:37:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If I'm right, do I get my name back? (0.00 / 0)

Obama-290/248 (straight from RealClearPolitics)

Popular vote will be 49.75 / 50.25 you pick your winner.  (Obama is trending toward a popular vote win)

Warren-to many polls consistently show her with a good lead; Dems really do have a superior ground in MA.  Your in denial if you don't understand that.

Tisei will win, but that's all you'll get in MA.

Dems pick up a net of 2 seats in US Senate

Dems pick up 5 seats in US House and Rs retain control

I don't have a sense of MA Leg races.  Given where the Rs baseline is, they better add a few seats in the House and likely will, but no more than 5 seats.  But they also have the potential of losing a few and that would be pretty sad.  Keyes doesn't seem to have the wind at his back like 2010 and he'll come up short.  Feingold should be OK and a conservative independent has a chance to win Steven Baddour's old seat.    

I do think turnout will be big in MA.  in '08 it was 3.05 million.  I think the Brown/Warren race and the Tierney/Tisei races will drive that number to 3.15 million.  As I pointed out in an BMG post the town of Merrimac appears to have the most contested races on the ballot (Prez, US Senate, Congress and open seats for St. Senate and House)  But I think neighboring West Newbury (which has similar races as Merrimac, except for the St Sen race) will have a turnout greater than 90%--more than any community in the state, because both St Rep candidates are from West Newbury)  

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by: Simple J. Malarkey @ Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 22:19:01 PM UTC

I think you and ES need to work that out. (0.00 / 0)

Make a bet on this election.  Your prediction wins, you get your name back.  ES wins and ________________.

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"That it ceased to exist, I'll grant you, but whether or not it failed cannot be definitively said." - Metropolitan (1990)

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by: Patrick @ Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 22:34:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Other than being a blow hard... (0.00 / 0)

ES has nothing to with that.  

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by: Simple J. Malarkey @ Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 22:40:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Other than being a blow hard ... ES has nothing to with that." - Simple (0.00 / 0)

LOL - Simple you're hallucinating again ... NO ONE HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH YOU CHANGING YOUR NAME EXCEPT YOU, REMEMBER??????

The bet was if Coakley lost you would leave this place and not come back.  Coakley lost and you decided not to honor the bet.  Instead you changed your handle as a juvenile way to make good on your word without actually having to (ya know) make good on your word.  Simply put you're making shit up again.  
 

Molon Labe

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by: Republican Ram Rod Radio @ Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 17:18:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I only (0.00 / 0)

make bets with honorable people.

Had nothing to do with the dishonorable lying piece of excrement and his last bet he made, lost, and failed to make payment on.  Y'all give him his name back and I'll still point out that he's nothing but a dishonorable lying piece of excrement every chance I get.
Only way he gets a shred of honor to his dishonorable lying piece of excrement name is to fulfill payment for a bet he made and lost.

LOVE to meet the loser in person some day.

"I acknowledge having racist and classist and sexist feelings of white male superiority." -John Howard

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by: ElectricStrawberry @ Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 23:19:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Your prediction wins, you get your name back." - Patrick (0.00 / 0)

No one took his name away to begin with.  The bet was he would leave and never come back.  Festus/Simple changing his name was kind of an Etch-A-Sketch defense mechanism that he employed so that he could live with himself and his welching ways.  

 

Molon Labe

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by: Republican Ram Rod Radio @ Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 15:09:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

BTW, (0.00 / 0)

while I am a non-$$$ betting man....I never would have taken Festus Garvey's last bet because....as I said...I only make bets with honorable people.   I KNEW Festus Garvey would never go away...because I knew then that he has no honor......and I was right....the loser has no honor.  You wanna know how I knew then that he was a dishonorable liar?  He said this:

Public embarrassment would enforce such a wager.

An honorable man would've said "I'm a man of my word"

Nothing's changed.  He still has no honor....is still a liar.

This was Festus Garvey AKA Simple Malarkey BEFORE Brown won.
His silence after losing the bet that billxi made with him lasted a little over 2 hours.

Nothing but a dishonorable lying POS loser.

"I acknowledge having racist and classist and sexist feelings of white male superiority." -John Howard

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by: ElectricStrawberry @ Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 16:15:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Whoops...a clarification on the US Senate prediction (0.00 / 0)

Yes, the Ds initially pick up 2 seats, but the Rs lose three seats and in the end, Angus caucuses with the Ds and get a 3 seat margin.  

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by: Simple J. Malarkey @ Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 22:39:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Karen Barry wins (0.00 / 0)

Tisei wins.  All other Ds win in House races.
Keyes loses.

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by: Bravehaht @ Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 00:47:00 AM UTC

Warren - Brown - too close to call (0.00 / 0)

I guarantee this is going to be really close.

I see Obama/Biden and Brown signs in the same lot in my town - so that's a good side for Brown.

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by: roarkarchitect @ Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 01:49:54 AM UTC

I'm a Pessimist (5.00 / 1)

Obama reelected 281-257
Republicans net two seat gain in the US Senate
Democrats net five seat gain in the US House

Elizabeth Warren beats Scott Brown.
Richard Tisei beats John Tierney.
All three Massachusetts ballot questions pass.

Angus King wins in Maine and caucuses with the Democrats.
Republicans hold the New Hampshire 1st House seat but lose the New Hampshire 2nd.
David Ciccilini (D) holds on in the Rhode Island 1st.
Maggie Hassan (D) beats Ovide Lamontagne (R) for Governor of New Hampshire
Republicans retain control of both houses of the New Hampshire legislature, but with greatly reduced majorities.

Massachusetts State Senate: No net changes
Massachusetts State House: Democrats net a one seat gain

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by: Tappan Wentworth @ Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 11:32:48 AM UTC

My Predictions (0.00 / 0)

Before getting into my election predictions, let me share my basis.  My thinking is that polling results are systematically understating the relative shares of the voting population with Republican leanings.  This is in part because many polls use 2008 turnout patterns as their model.  That is not the case in 2012.  Indeed, as Gallup's analysis shows, likely voters are nearly split with 46 percent of likely voters identifying as Democrats or lean Democrat and 49 percent of likely voters as Republicans or lean Republican.  http://www.gallup.com/poll/158...  That is a big shift from 2008 where likely voters were 54 percent Dem/Dem leaners versus 42 percent Rep/Rep leaners.  Indeed, the electorate this year looks a lot like the 2004 election where likely voters were split 48 percent Dem/lean Dem and 48 percent Rep/lean Rep.  That makes me think that the presidential vote will break in 2012 similar to the way it broke in 2004.  I'll give Romney 51 and Obama 48-the same outcome as in 2004.  

Note than CNN had the race tied with a Dem +11 sample.  Given Gallup's numbers for likely voters, there is no way that this race is tied.  

In terms of electoral votes, I have it at Romney 295 and Obama 243 with Romney winning OH, WI, IA, NH and CO, Obama getting PA, NV and MN.  I was on WI two weeks ago and aside from the Madison area and parts of sparsely populated Western Wisconsin, most of the stuff I saw was for Romney.  The Wisconsin State Journal-the local Madison paper-even endorsed Romney (and Thompson).  

I also predict that total turnout will be the same as in 2008: 132 million votes.  Turnout in Mass will be 3.0 million votes, down somewhat since '08 (as opposed to the prediction of Simple malarkey, above).    

In terms of New England.

I like Brown 52 - 47 and I'll go with Richard Tisei as well, by a 55 - 44 margin with the Libertarian getting 1 percent.  55-44 is the same margin that Torkildsen took the seat by in 1992 against Nicky Pockets in an otherwise very Democratic year in Mass.  

MA Senate will still have 4 Republicans
MA House will have the same number of GOP state reps as it does today.

Other than Tierney, all other D's will win.  Bielat and Golnik get good jobs in the Romney administration, get better connected, and Golnik will eventually become a serious player in the Mass GOP (though not in elective office).  

Maggie Hassan will be NH's next governor.  

Doherty will win in RI.  It is starting to sink in to RI voters that their state is in free fall and desperately needs new leadership.

McMahon wins in CT.  Remember that in 2010 the gubernatorial race was far closer than polls predicted.  McMahon is a much better candidate this time.    Thompson wins Wisconsin.  Akin loses.  Mourdock wins.  

All three ballot questions will pass in MA.

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by: yankeepundit @ Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 22:30:43 PM UTC

Galvin is predicting 3.2 million turnout in MA (0.00 / 0)

...according to a radio report I heard today.  He is often scarily accurate in his turnout prediction (actually it's not that hard for him, given his access to absentee ballot requests around the state.)

I've read a lot about the conservatives contention that the current polling is based on 2008 models (Dick Morse being the biggest cheerleader).  I've also read a great deal from those who contend that is wrong.  Frankly, don't you think professional pollsters are smart enough to adjust their models over that last year as they continually poll?  Certainly the "enthusiasm" gap will impact this model and it has been a moving target, especially on the D side, which has improved lately.  Predicting turnout and who shows up has always been a political art as opposed to a political science.  Bottom line is no one knows until Nov 7th.

Also in MA, you make no mention of the D ground game.  It is real, just ask Auditor Mary Connaughton.  The Ds demonstrated their ground game can mean a point or two.  Not insignificant.  

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by: Simple J. Malarkey @ Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 04:03:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My Predictions (0.00 / 0)

Before getting into my election predictions, let me share my basis.  My thinking is that polling results are systematically understating the relative shares of the voting population with Republican leanings.  This is in part because many polls use 2008 turnout patterns as their model.  That is not the case in 2012.  Indeed, as Gallup's analysis shows, likely voters are nearly split with 46 percent of likely voters identifying as Democrats or lean Democrat and 49 percent of likely voters as Republicans or lean Republican.  http://www.gallup.com/poll/158...  That is a big shift from 2008 where likely voters were 54 percent Dem/Dem leaners versus 42 percent Rep/Rep leaners.  Indeed, the electorate this year looks a lot like the 2004 election where likely voters were split 48 percent Dem/lean Dem and 48 percent Rep/lean Rep.  That makes me think that the presidential vote will break in 2012 similar to the way it broke in 2004.  I'll give Romney 51 and Obama 48-the same outcome as in 2004.  

Note than CNN had the race tied with a Dem +11 sample.  Given Gallup's numbers for likely voters, there is no way that this race is tied.  

In terms of electoral votes, I have it at Romney 295 and Obama 243 with Romney winning OH, WI, IA, NH and CO, Obama getting PA, NV and MN.  I was on WI two weeks ago and aside from the Madison area and parts of sparsely populated Western Wisconsin, most of the stuff I saw was for Romney.  The Wisconsin State Journal-the local Madison paper-even endorsed Romney (and Thompson).  

I also predict that total turnout will be the same as in 2008: 132 million votes.  Turnout in Mass will be 3.0 million votes, down somewhat since '08 (as opposed to the prediction of Simple malarkey, above).    

In terms of New England.

I like Brown 52 - 47 and I'll go with Richard Tisei as well, by a 55 - 44 margin with the Libertarian getting 1 percent.  55-44 is the same margin that Torkildsen took the seat by in 1992 against Nicky Pockets in an otherwise very Democratic year in Mass.  

MA Senate will still have 4 Republicans
MA House will have the same number of GOP state reps as it does today.

Other than Tierney, all other D's will win.  Bielat and Golnik get good jobs in the Romney administration, get better connected, and Golnik will eventually become a serious player in the Mass GOP (though not in elective office).  

Maggie Hassan will be NH's next governor.  

Doherty will win in RI.  It is starting to sink in to RI voters that their state is in free fall and desperately needs new leadership.

McMahon wins in CT.  Remember that in 2010 the gubernatorial race was far closer than polls predicted.  McMahon is a much better candidate this time.    Thompson wins Wisconsin.  Akin loses.  Mourdock wins.  

All three ballot questions will pass in MA.

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by: yankeepundit @ Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 22:30:51 PM UTC

The magic 8 ball says.......................... (0.00 / 0)

I'm more pessimistic about this election then I thought I'd be but I'll toss my thoughts out there:

Romney over Obama, but it's going to be very close I think.  The polls I've been seeing of late show this to be much tighter then I expected.

Brown and Warren.  I'm of the mind that people will go into the voting booth and have that reality check when they have to actually mark the ballot.  This has been a painful race to watch from my seat in the bleachers, but I think Brown may just barely edge out Warren. Again, this one I think is going to be close.

Tierney and Tisei.  I hate to say it, but I'll not be surprised to see Tierney win this one.  I like Rich Tisei as a person, but I just don't feel good about this race.  I hope to be wrong.

Mass Legislative: I see a blood letting here.  Senate no changes, House I won't be surprised to see a few seats lost.

Just my gut feeling on it all.. your mileage may vary.


Richard A. Jolitz

Once, and future, candidate


 

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by: NorthShoreRich @ Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 04:10:01 AM UTC

My predictions - Obama and Warren will take an early lead (0.00 / 0)

until the rest of us get out of work ... Then the red tide will sweep accross the US.


Molon Labe

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by: Republican Ram Rod Radio @ Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 13:43:20 PM UTC

Brown vs. Warren (0.00 / 0)

Brown:  1,630,598 votes
Warren: 1,505,502 votes

Elizabeth Warren: a bankruptcy professor, bankrupt of ideas

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by: gary @ Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 15:42:57 PM UTC

Brown vs. Warren (0.00 / 0)

I think even closer - the D's have a great GOTV - but in my town everyone was honking for the few republicans holding a sign. Voters looked very serious.

BTW - no Warren phone calls at my house - sort of weird - we have 3 U's.

Either we have been identified as all voting republican which is wrong -  which is really scary - or the democrats GOTV is not as good as I think.  

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by: roarkarchitect @ Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 21:22:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Romney wins (0.00 / 0)

With > 300 Evotes, taking NH, VA, PA, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa, losing Nevada.  Ohio too close to call  

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by: demolisher @ Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 20:17:35 PM UTC