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New poll shows Scott Brown in "strong position" for special election

by: SarahRumpf

Thu Dec 20, 2012 at 08:03:45 AM EST


( - promoted by Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno)

WBUR conducted a poll earlier this week that shows Scott Brown is in a "strong position" to rejoin his colleagues in the Senate, assuming John Kerry is appointed to be Secretary of State, triggering a special election.

The poll was conducted with 500 registered voters on Monday and Tuesday, and Brown's favorables are very high, even though it is less than two months after he lost a brutal campaign battle against Elizabeth Warren.  

SarahRumpf :: New poll shows Scott Brown in "strong position" for special election
58% of poll respondents said they viewed him favorably, only 28% viewed him unfavorably, with 12% undecided and 1% saying they had never heard of him.

Not surprisingly, Brown is the overwhelming favorite in a Republican primary: 81% would vote for Brown, 6% for former Governor Bill Weld, and 5% former gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker.

I have heard some scattered rumors of other candidates considering throwing their hats in the ring, but nothing serious or very credible. Brown's near-universal name recognition and fundraising prowess not only make him a formidable primary opponent, but also help reassure Republican primary voters still smarting from November's losses (the Democrats pretty much ran the table in the state, now holding both Senate seats, all Congressional seats, and a large majority in both houses of the Legislature) that he is likely the party's most viable candidate for this seat.

The poll also tested hypothetical matchups between Brown and several current or former Massachusetts Democratic Congressional representatives (Reps. Markey, Capuano, Lynch, and former Rep. Meehan), and Brown led each of them by a whopping 17 to 19 points.

Elizabeth Warren was able to defeat Brown in November, but she had two advantages that next year's Democrat contenders would lack. First, this was a presidential election year and the special election turnout is almost universally expected to give a Republican a much better chance than this November.

Second, Warren was able to successfully weaken Brown's numbers with women voters, even though he is moderate on many of those issues, including being pro-choice. A male candidate - and almost all of the names being discussed as potential candidates for the Democratic nomination are men - would not be able to duplicate Warren's attacks as easily.

Read WBUR's article on their poll here.

(Cross-posted at Sunshine State Sarah)

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All very valid points in Brown's favor (0.00 / 0)
Add to those the Dems cannot argue this time that a Brown win gives Republicans control of the Senate and Brown's own moves to the center (changing his position on assault weapons ban for example) which alllows him the redine himself after a poor campaign. All this makes Brown a real threat to win a 2013 special.

On the flip side, Dems won't be caught off guard by Brown as they were in 2010 special. Recognizing a threat is half the battle. And expect a woman to join the Democratic field which is far from settled.

The fun never stops.


I wonder if his gun reversal will prompt a Libertarian to run. (0.00 / 0)


---
"Men invent new ideals because they dare not attempt old ideals. They look forward with enthusiasm, because they are afraid to look back." - G.K. Chesterton
http://red.ma.altercate.net


[ Parent ]
So he can (4.00 / 5)
waste the resources of the MaGOP to hold another seat for a year+?  Then get his ass kicked in the next general against....Teddy Jr?

"I acknowledge having racist and classist and sexist feelings of white male superiority." -John Howard

2014 will not be 2012... (5.00 / 1)
...at least when it comes to voter turnout.

No "every 4 years" casual voters.

And Brown has all his ID'd voters after two elections.

Democrat nominee can start with Warren ID'd supporters, doesn't mean they'll GOTV this time around.


Follow me on Twitter?  Sure, why not.  www.twitter.com/paulferro


[ Parent ]
But what will 2013 turnout be? (4.00 / 2)
Yes, the special election turnout # in '09 resembled a non-presidental turnout (2.1 million ish for '09 and off year elections vs 3.1 million(ish) in presidential) but the composition of voters will be different.  2010 voters, especially in the Special, were the high water mark of the angry backlash against the government's efforts to stop a great depression (maybe I should have called it an irrational backlash).  Even then Brown won by about 3% and the GOP made no other advances in MA, while they cleaned house nationally.  2012 demonstrated that the Dems recovered from that.

There is NOTHING on the horizon that remotely suggest a wave of voter discontent will affect MA this Spring.  The wave that resulted in Brown's narrow win won't be there.  As far as Brown's voter IDs...do you really want to compare field efforts Paul?  Are you among the GOP tacticians who are playing checkers while John Walsh is play chess?  

I have no doubt that Brown will be formable. Hell, I THOUGHT he was pretty much unbeatable one year ago.  But I saw him lose against a novice candidate and saw for the 2nd time in a row (after Brown's upset win) a massive DEM GOTV effort.  Ya, the Dems have a better chance of winning the special.  


[ Parent ]
LOL - Thanks for the hot tip Festus ... How did your prediction work out for you the last time you tried to predict a Special Election in MA? : ) (0.00 / 0)


Molon Labe

[ Parent ]
If Ted Kennedy Jr. or Vicky Kennedy Ends Up, Officially, Running, Then How Can Scott Brown Win? (0.00 / 0)
 I would be very surprised, if, either, Ted Kennedy Jr., and/or Vicky Kennedy decide NOT to, officially, run for this U.S. Senate seat. It continues to be very sad and very scary how the majority of Massachusetts voters "give" any race for political office to the Kennedy's, whenever any Kennedy decides to run for any political office anywhere within Massachusetts! Scott Brown doesn't have ANY SERIOUS CHANCE of, actually, winning such a race against, either, Ted Kennedy Jr., or Vicky Kennedy, and that's a fact, folks!

maybe joe can run (0.00 / 0)
He has had lots of experience  in the house - time for the senate.

as the Globe said being a politician is in his DNA.


[ Parent ]



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