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MassInsight/Opinion Dynamics Poll: Cahill is the spoiler, Dem Congress Incumbents on shaky ground

by: Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno

Wed Aug 11, 2010 at 11:10:36 AM EDT

Between July 23, 2010 and July 26, 2010 Opinion Dynamics conducted a poll for MassInsight.  500 adults were polled mostly on economic issues and a subset of 452 registered voters were identified and asked a series of political questions.  

The results of the poll further show that Tim Cahill is playing the part of spoiler in the race for Massachusetts Governor.  In a three way race the poll shows that 25% show support for Charlie Baker, 30% show support for Deval Patrick and 16% show support for Tim Cahill with 29% undecided.  In a two person race between Charlie Baker and Deval Patrick, Baker holds a 5 point lead 42% - 37% with 22% undecided.  

These numbers bolster the notion that Deval Patrick's only shot of re-election is having Tim Cahill in the race.

(more analysis and toplines below the fold)

Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno :: MassInsight/Opinion Dynamics Poll: Cahill is the spoiler, Dem Congress Incumbents on shaky ground
Perhaps the most shocking aspect of this poll is that 54% of registered voters in Massachusetts are either somewhat or very likely to vote against their incumbent Democratic Congressman this November.  Republicans have a once in a generation opportunity to restore balance to our congressional delegation.  

Please find below the toplines from this Opinion Dynamics Survey.

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Question 14 (0.00 / 0)
14. How likely are you to vote against the incumbent Democrat in your congressional district in the elections this November: very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all?

By a 48% to 39% margin statewide they throw the bums out.  So, that's +9% statewide.  In some districts it will be better, and in other districts worse.  This makes the 5th, 6th, and obviously the 10th districts competitive.

Even so, the 5th and 6th are still reaches and our candidates are long shots.  However, Hudak and Golinik are both raising competitive amounts of money and have some personal wealth to spend.  They aren't the unfunded token challengers the MassGOP has grown used to in recent years.

"Never Head of Michael Graham." - Gabriel Gomez.

redo the math (5.00 / 1)
its 54 - 39

30+24 vs 21+18

Full Disclosure

[ Parent ]
my bad (0.00 / 0)
So, it's +15%.  All the better.

"Never Head of Michael Graham." - Gabriel Gomez.

[ Parent ]
It's Revolution 2010! (0.00 / 0)
I'm not surprised by the polling on the Congressional races, I still think we have a good chance to take at least four. What shocks me is that 46% believes that the Legislature can deal with taxes and spending cuts. Means we have to start focusing, on both those close congressional races and on our legislative candidates. By now everyone should have picked at least one candidate to dedicate his life to from now until November. IMHO.
As for Cahill being the spoiler: just a suggestion, could we commit to supporting him against Kerry in 2014 if he'll drop the governor campaign?

What is the fourth??? (0.00 / 0)
The 10th is the obvious one. Most ratings have that as competitive.

The 5th and 6th are sometimes rated as long shots, but at least marginally competitive.

I have not seen any other districts on the radar - and can't conceive of any either.  

Perhaps the fact that we have seen millions voting themselves into complete dependence on a tyrant has made our generation understand that to choose one's government is not necessarily to secure freedom.  

[ Parent ]
Is the tenth Hudak? (0.00 / 0)

"Never, never, never give up" - Winston Churchill

[ Parent ]
10th is Perry. (0.00 / 0)

Any man who afflicts the human race with ideas must be prepared to see them misunderstood. - H. L. Mencken

[ Parent ]
District profiles. (0.00 / 0)
Based on their PVI, the 10th is the best district in MA.  The 6th is the 2nd best and the 5th is the 3rd best.  This is based on the 2010 Presidential election results and does not necessarily reflect the candidates in the race.

"Never Head of Michael Graham." - Gabriel Gomez.

[ Parent ]
We should calculate and coin the Brown voting index (0.00 / 0)

Full Disclosure

[ Parent ]
PVI is pretty consistent... (0.00 / 0)
Marlborough is a PVI R+5 city.

Even when our candidates lose, they do +5 points better than the state average.

Brown,  52% Statewide, 57% in Marlborough.

Bush, 37% Statewide, 43% in Marlborough.

Kerry Heally, 35% statewide, 40% in Marlborough.

Big fan of PVI as an indicator as a result.

Follow me on Twitter?  Sure, why not.

[ Parent ]
Brown voting index (0.00 / 0)
Only works if the candidate for say state senate or Congress spends the same amount as brown pro rated and gets the same free media.

That makes it apples to apples.  

[ Parent ]
Brown voting index (0.00 / 0)
Only works if the candidate for say state senate or Congress spends the same amount as brown pro rated and gets the same free media.

That makes it apples to apples.  

[ Parent ]
Dollar breakdown Brown by districts (0.00 / 0)
$1.2 million for congressional districts
$300,000 for state senate districts
$75,000 for state rep. districts

Plus the free press.  

[ Parent ]
Four is my favorite number (0.00 / 0)
So I'm saying four. It could be more if the mood is right. Definitely Hudak in the 6th. Good candidates in the 5th. Am interested in the Third, at least three good candidates, eg Mike Stopa posting here today. BTW, just heard that another Democrat might be jumping in to the 10th, maybe as an Independent.  Maryanne Lewis was defeated in her House primary in 2002, when voters were angry with Tom Finneran's style of leadership.

Perspective: I remember when Republican Peter Torkildsen was my Congressman, with Peter Blue in the third.

[ Parent ]
Typo: that's Peter Blute, now a talk show host (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Fourth is the fourth (0.00 / 0)
oh for Pete's sake would you guys lose your awe of Barney and realize that this district could be in play?  Listen to the Bielat / Sholley debate for an idea of who we have running in this one...

[ Parent ]
I agree (0.00 / 0)
I made a pitch for the fourth on the Charley Manning show today. I'd think that even voters in Brookline would be embarrassed that their Congressman almost destroyed the world economy.

[ Parent ]
I'm surprised by the Cahill factor (0.00 / 0)
Some have suggested Cahill takes more votes from Deval, but this poll really counters that--

Charlie would gain 17 percent if Cahill dropped, whereas Deval would only gain 7. The "don't knows" are reduced by 5 points without Cahill.

So does Baker focus on Deval, or keep hammering Cahill?

Any man who afflicts the human race with ideas must be prepared to see them misunderstood. - H. L. Mencken

Deval's single digit lead... (0.00 / 0)
My read of this poll is Baker trails Deval by 5 points with 29% undecided. I'm not disputing that Cahill is a hemorrhoid, but there seems to be a decent path for Baker. Also, when push comes to shove a week out from election day, we'll see how those Cahill numbers hold up.

[ Parent ]
RMG linked at The Campaign Spot on National Review Online! (0.00 / 0)

Jim Geraghty's Take:

Strangely, the right direction/wrong track split is at 46/40, which seems pretty good considering the mood of the country. Also note that the "will definitely vote against my incumbent Democratic Congressman" is at 30 percent, which is flat from April and one point below what it was in January. There's no disputing that for Massachusetts Republicans, the opportunities are there. But the locals haven't completely abandoned their traditional Democratic loyalties yet.

G.O.P. Growth. Opportunity. Prosperity. For all Americans.

Karl (TLC)Weld

Congressional Dems In Big Trouble (5.00 / 2)
Without question, some of our Members of Congress are in deep well they should be. Polls show nearly 70% of the public feel that America is on the wrong track. Bill Delahunt felt the pressure back in December and got off the train. John Tierney,("wrong track" Tierney)is in the fight of life against Bill Hudak in the 6th District. And, the trend there is with Hudak.

Niki Tsongas is also in tough race.

Jeff Perry, the likely winner of the Republican primary in the 10th, will win out over either Keating or O'Leary. Both support the policies of the Administration, and the voters aren't buying it...even the ones that voted for Obama way back in 2008.  

Congressional dems in big trouble (0.00 / 0)
I would like to see more attention paid to the 6th district - Tierney is in a tough race with Bill Hudak. I have heard Bill Hudak speak - and like what I am hearing.  I am not alone.  He is a no-nonsense fiscal conservative, and a fresh voice for the 6th district.  

[ Parent ]

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